Close games fell the wrong way...

Richmond and Essendon wins messed up my tips, but I cannot be too mad as I did think those games would be close.  Collingwood surprised the model and Melbourne produced the goods to support the tip overrule.  So, all up a mixed bag - broke even on the flexi tips and added two to the streak.

This week with the Gather round the models has had to adjust some home ground advantages.

The models have overruled the opening round tip and settled on tipping Melbourne by 11 to further frustrate the home team Adelaide.  Brisbane, Port and Sydney should notch up 3 goals plus wins.  Freo v Blues is my pick of the round for a good game with the models favouring Fremantle by 5.  GWS, Saints (in another good game potentially against the Tigers) and Collingwood to add some more misery to the Hawks year.

Flexi bets: Melbourne, 20, Fremantle 30 and Bulldogs 50 (Bulldogs are the underdogs but the model favours the doggies heavily and has had the view that the Cats are on the decline - despite easily beating the Hawks last week).

I am adding three streak tips to the models highlighted two as they are sitting on the round off/ cut off...and we have a bit to catch up on the footytips.com.au streak tippers.

Swings and Roundabouts

Well, I was happy with the Saints tip. Bit shocked by the Adelaide performance and Disappointed in how badly I got Hawthorn wrong (64pt MAE!).

The conservative streak tipping is still going on 6 and the flexi broke even this week despite a big outlay on the Hawks. (I have not been able to determine my ranking in the flexi comp or streak on footytips.com.au; not sure if it is browser issue or with the website).

This weeks tips I have one over rule of the base model - tip switched from Port winning at home to a Melbourne away win (original tip Port by 7, modified final tip Melbourne by 15.  I am expecting a very good quality game.  The tip over rule modifies the flexi tips where I have spread 4 equal tips: Saints, Melbourne, Sydney and Geelong.

Models predicting 3 games by under a goal - hopefully I get them all correct and jump up the ladders.

Round 2: a lot of close games this week (watch Dogs v Gold Coast and Port v Tigers)

Although it was highlighted that the Hawks would have more scoring shots their accuracy was not as predicted and Stringer slotted in a couple of crucial goals from long range.  Bombers did win but my analysis is Hawks lost it.

The Pies are not going well (as predicted) and the model is predicting the Saints notch up a close win in Round 2.

Carlton rolling on, Richmond fielding a team - both as predicted.

Geelong snuck home but the Crows didn't.

Melbourne had a bigger win than I anticipated which makes the Doggies tip this week look shakey.

Flexi tips missed on Hawks and Crows but snagged 0.84 to take total to $2.45.

Streak was conservative and is on an active 4 (but 8 behind footytips.com.au leader who fell on the Freo win)

Tips this week:

Saints over Pies by 3: Flexi 50

Adelaide at home over Cats by 16; Flexi 20

Freo by 20 over North in Melbourne

Hawks by 9 over Melbourne (in a model over rule: to be discussed if I have time this week as I am at a conference)

Sydney comfortably over Bombers by 29

Dogs over Gold Coast by 12; Flexi 30 and probably the match of the round.

Port by 7 over Tigers (model thinks this much closer than my heart tells me (all Carlo Monte Models think this will be close so maybe another good one to watch)

GWS to account for West Coast by at least 37

One kick off a perfect round...even if it was a four game round formerly known as Zero

Kicking off with a near-perfect round, albeit a compact four-game lineup, set the tone for an intriguing start to the footy season. While I was momentarily distracted during the Brisbane versus Blues showdown, catching only the final seconds on the radio, Carlton's narrow victory added a tantalizing twist. A one-point decider like this could have significant ramifications down the line, potentially reshuffling ladder positions. It's a reminder to heed all model checks, especially when they hint at close calls.

The comeback stories from various teams underscore the unpredictable nature of footy. The Suns' jubilant opener contrasts with the Tigers' stumble. Meanwhile, GWS and the Swans came out swinging, leaving the Pies and Melbourne with much to ponder. Amidst this flux, I'm content with an opening round Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 17 and a streak of 2, with a Monash score of 41.

Looking ahead to Round 1, my model is diverging from bookie predictions in three matchups: backing Hawthorn against Essendon, Adelaide to conquer Gold Coast at Carrara, and the boldest call, Fremantle to edge past Brisbane by a mere point. Flexi tips allocate confidence points accordingly but avoiding eth Freo: Brisbane clash (Hawks 50; Adelaide 30 and Melbourne 20). Furthermore, I'm leaning towards GWS and Port Adelaide to maintain a conservative streak.

The rationale behind the Hawthorn pick disregards preseason setbacks, relying solely on model projections. Similarly, tipping Fremantle over Brisbane challenges conventional wisdom, yet the models stand firm in their prediction. Adelaide's consistent performance in recent years lends credence to their favoured status against Gold Coast.

While Geelong and Melbourne tips have raised (Carlo Monty internal model) eyebrows, adjustments have been made based on model algorithms and trimmed two predictions. Anticipate tight margins in several matches this round, promising many nail-biting finishes.

Tips:

Carlton: 12

Pies: 18

Hawks: 6, flexi 50

GWS: 40, streak

Cats: 6

Crows: 8, flexi 30

Demons: 7, flexi 20

Port: 42, streak

Freo: 1

Round ! part 2

 According to footytips.com.au the bookies have the Giants as favourite ($1.70 to $2.15) but the general tippers favour the Pies (70 to 30%). 

The Carlo Monty model has the Giants winning by a comfortable 34 points - warranting a flexi and streak tip. Historically the model has tipped correctly 60% of the time over the last ten games between these two teams (2017 to 2023) and importantly all three times that the Giants have played at home (with an average error of 20 points).

Round ! (the round formerly known as 1): All home teams

The Carlo Monty model received a reminder email today (28 days out from the start of the season) from footytips.com.au So of course I jumped right in and put my four home team tips in, three flexi tips and went for all four tips in the streak.

The streak tipping officially, I did not predict Sydney but as it is the first game nothing to lose if tip incorrectly for the streak.  The Gold Coast tip is tentatively in as a streak tip on the basis of all three of my internal models (main plus two outlier checks) are in tight agreement (and bookies odds are hovering around $1.50) - I will see if I regret this tip.

The opening game tip is for Sydney but not confidently.  Out of the last ten Swans: Demons clashes my model has only had a 30% success rate (all Melbourne wins) and my margin of error is just north of 6 goals.

Carlo Monty 2024 ladder prediction

The community that puts forward final ladder predictions has grown dramatically over the past decade (or two).  The Carlo Monty model has been around long enough to know that predicting the ladder prior to the start of the season is kin to purchasing a Tattslotto Quick Pick with a fair few people able to “win” a Division 6 or 5 and thus consider themselves Footy Seers : )

The main point of experience gained over the years of putting ladder predictions out there is to remove all emotion from the tipping/ predictions.  Carlo Monty focuses on the moving averages of shots for and against and the accuracy of the shots on goal and applies some ELO thinking.  A fairly clunky excel model based on chart analysis – but it consistently does slightly better than the bookies (the thinking of the crowd).  The long-term predictions for the end of season ladder are more like Division 6 Tattslotto.

The model simulates the entire season and continually updates an end of year ladder which feeds into the simulated finals.  The predicted Premier jumps around a bit early in the season and settles down with about the middle of the season.  Early predictions for some teams vary greatly with some long winning or losing streaks which need to be viewed with doubt early I the season.

Based on the Carlo Monty model (moving averages, winning streaks, simulated season…) the considered opinion for the 2024 ladder (at the end of the home and away season) is:

Ladder position at End of H&A	Team
1	Adelaide
2	GW Sydney
3	Brisbane
4	Melbourne
5	Western Bulldogs
6	Port Adelaide
7	Carlton
8	Geelong
9	Collingwood
10	Sydney
11	Fremantle
12	Richmond
13	St Kilda
14	Hawthorn
15	Gold Coast
16	Essendon
17	North Melbourne
18	West Coast

 

The predictions are broken down into four groups:

·       Those competing for the top 4 (6 teams)

·       Four teams competing for position 7 or 8; and 9 and 10 (missing finals)

·       Five teams that will shape the fates of the two groups above them

·       Three teams that are expected to battle it out for the wooden spoon.

Looking at the top six teams they are identified with a clear or trending positive shots on goal model (more shots on goal compared to opponents' shots on goal).

Adelaide is positively viewed as their offensive trend has been increasing consistently for a number of rounds and the defence has been stable with a slight downward trend.  The expectation is that Adelaide will have focused on improving its defence over the off season.

GWS has a similar trend but with a shorter period of offensive increase and a more erratic defence trend.  Shot on goal accuracy could improve also aiding their seasons performance.

Brisbane will be in the mix for a final 4 position.  The trends flag keeping an eye on the Brisbane defence in the first 6 or so games.

Similarly, Melbourne should be considered a contender for the top 4 although the team has been cruising along with good attack and defence and a breakdown in either or both is possible.  Again, the quality and consistency of the defence will be the focus for the model.

The Bulldogs are the Carlo Monty pick for outside chance for Premier.  The trends are all in the right direction.  How deep they go in the finals will depend largely on home ground advantage in finals: a fifth spot home ground could be viewed better than an interstate final by finishing in fourth place.  I would still prefer to finish 4^th than 5^th and I hope the doggies do.

The team on the cusp of being included in the six teams Carlo Monty considers are battling it out for the top four is Port Adelaide. The first six to eight games of the season will need to see Port improve the defence and attack simultaneously.  If they remain stagnant or drop off Port will be battling it out in the cutthroat mid ladder group(s).

The remainder of the eight will be battled out by Carlton, Collingwood, Geelong, Sydney and possibly Fremantle.  All of these teams have similar shot trends.  Geelong is the team to focus on as they may remain reasonably consistent and, in the mix, or drop dramatically.  The dramatic drop is on the cards as the shots for is trending down and the shots against is strongly trending up.  Preseason viewing should influence the early season tips.

Collingwood are notably over rated by the bookies – and I think should be very happy that they got to put the 2023 Cup in the cabinet.

Richmond, St Kilda, Hawthorn and Gold Coast trends are not very impressive but games between themselves and the teams fighting it out for the lower final eight will have a very big impact.

The final three teams are characterised by a big gap between shots for and against.  Hopefully both North and West Coast become more competitive and shake up the teams vying for spots 6 to 15.  Wooden spoon watch for Essendon I predict will be discussed about mid season.

Bombers v Hawks a potential window into both clubs game play for 2024 and a rare model disagreement and official tip change!

The bookies have this as a close game with odds about $1.90: $2.00.  The Carlo Monty model initially agrees and currently has Essendon as slight favourites predicted to win by 3 to 4 points (3.5).  We must go back to 2018 when the teams were similarly well matched.

However, the two main internal models used by the Carlo Monty supercomputer has thrown up the one in twenty differences of opinion flagging this game as a “hidden blockbuster”: a game where the stars align to produce a hopefully close game warranting in depth analysis of the game play.  Given it is also the first home and away game of the year for both teams it may be hyperbolic or seer like in the conclusions that could be drawn from one team convincingly winning over the other.

Given that both teams are in the “also-ran” grouping of teams not anticipated to worry the finals in 2024 the prediction of a “hidden blockbuster” could fall flat on its face and be a dreary example of two sub-par teams slugging it out for the four points.

Recent experience (last ten games) is a coin toss with the model having correctly predicted the winner 5 times, with a not very flash margin of error of 30 points.  The last prediction was incorrect in tipping the Hawks: an 11-goal thumping occurred.

Last Ten games

 

Reviewing the trends in more detail the Carlo Monty Institute is tipping Hawthorn by 7 (2 to10) points and allocating (at this stage) 30 flexi tip points.  The reasoning behind overruling the regression model in favour of the pure shot-based model is the consistent advantage Hawthorn have over Essendon with respect to the weighted shots for/ against and the weighted points for and against per shot on goal:

Team	Shots for	Shots Against	Points per shot for	Points per shot against
Essendon	19.36	23.93	3.32	4.37
Hawthorn	20.08	22.40	3.76	3.99

A large part of these statistics is based on the previous five games and based on 2023 ladder positions Hawthorn played higher quality teams in the last five games of 2023.

Additionally, any home ground advantage Essendon could be assigned is minimal (In 2023: both teams played on the MCG 14 times): Essendon as home ground will have a few more supporters than if they were the away team.

Post game analysis of score frequency and accuracy will hopefully highlight a promising year for one team.  A big win by either team warrants a closer examination of what has changed from last year and any implications for the following few rounds - a slightly tougher run of games for the Hawks although the next two played in Melbourne and then play Collingwood in Adelaide (which should be beneficial to the Hawks).  While Essendon have one interstate trip to Sydney then go to Adelaide for the gather round against Port (HAW: MEL, GEE, COL and ESS: SYD, STK, POR)

Battling to avoid the spoon: West Coast Eagles and North Melbourne's 2024 AFL Journey

As the 2024 AFL season kicks off, two teams find themselves grappling with the harsh reality of cellar-dwelling status. The West Coast Eagles, armed with a historically low Carlo Monty rating of -10, face an uphill battle to climb from the bottom of the ladder. Meanwhile, North Melbourne, although not plagued by as dire a rating, navigates a challenging landscape with a seemingly stable trend in scoring shots for and against. In this exploration, we examine the early-season challenges, scoring shot nuances, and potential upsets that await these struggling teams.

West Coast Eagles: A Daunting Climb from -10

The West Coast Eagles embark on the season with a disheartening Carlo Monty rating of -10, signalling the enormity of the task ahead. With crucial fixtures against North Melbourne looming in the second half of the season, the initial five games against formidable opponents like Port Adelaide, GWS, Bulldogs, Sydney, and Richmond are predicted to be more of the same carried over from 2023, likely resulting in a winless streak and a disappointingly low percentage. The road to redemption for the Eagles is paved with challenges, with improvement needed in defence and attack. Improving the defence is more important from a trending perspective and any improvement in the first five games should be viewed as a positive.

North Melbourne: need to change something. More of the same is not really an option.

In the contrasting realm of North Melbourne, the team faces a more stable trend (albeit a sad one) in scoring shots for and against, spanning at least 50 rounds and arguably 100 rounds. Despite the absence of conspicuous impacts from strategic playing style changes, a glimmer of hope emerges as scoring shots for show signs of improvement.

However, the fixture poses its own set of obstacles, with only nine games against the Carlo Monty Also Rans. A trio of away games against St Kilda, Gold Coast, and Essendon in the middle of the season presents winnable opportunities but also raises questions about potential upsets that could defy conventional streak-tipping wisdom - may need to consider avoiding tipping against North in these games.

Both West Coast and North will be watching Essendon's games closely as the Bombers could conceivably be winless prior to their tenth game against North (currently predicted as a narrow win to North at Marvel Stadium.

Both Essendon and Hawthorn have similar scoring profiles and both teams opening game (against each other) will colour the model predictions for the following rounds. The model prediction slightly favours Essendon but will come down to scoring accuracy with both accuracy for and points per shot against favouring the Hawks at present.