Round 10 and 22 upsets saw the long shot punters pick up 1500 and 1900 points respectively which distorted the results a bit. The Carlo Monty flexi tip rules had a few good weeks with the spread flexi betting with 8 occurrences inside the top 1000 but only once getting close to the top 100 (144 in round 5). The absolute maximum flexi for the entire year was 11842 points. The 2012 winner achieved 5164 during the regular season and 5861 after the finals (my post final total was 2962 and bumped the ranking up to 269).
The end of the season saw a dramatic drop off in flexi tipping with 4 of the 10 sub 100 scores rounding out the season (the 11th being the donut for the Grand Final).
| Round |
Correct |
% correct tip |
Flexi pts |
rank |
total members |
Max flexi |
Round flexi avg |
overall rank |
| 1 |
4 |
44.44 |
62 |
6075 |
9626 |
370 |
83.8 |
|
| 2 |
9 |
100.00 |
174 |
396 |
11803 |
270 |
84.2 |
|
| 3 |
7 |
77.78 |
105 |
2491 |
13909 |
500 |
78.5 |
|
| 4 |
7 |
77.78 |
127 |
1767 |
15152 |
750 |
92.6 |
|
| 5 |
9 |
100.00 |
248 |
144 |
16047 |
370 |
82.3 |
|
| 6 |
4 |
44.44 |
11 |
4527 |
16828 |
400 |
90.2 |
|
| 7 |
4 |
44.44 |
93 |
2504 |
17621 |
460 |
96.8 |
|
| 8 |
6 |
66.67 |
39 |
3823 |
18213 |
300 |
94.8 |
|
| 9 |
7 |
77.78 |
181 |
696 |
18796 |
370 |
87.7 |
|
| 10 |
5 |
55.56 |
84 |
2552 |
19323 |
1500 |
109.7 |
|
| 11 |
4 |
66.67 |
168 |
760 |
19759 |
460 |
95.1 |
|
| 12 |
6 |
100.00 |
142 |
892 |
20136 |
178 |
75.3 |
|
| 13 |
4 |
66.67 |
129 |
967 |
20523 |
335 |
67.3 |
|
| 14 |
7 |
77.78 |
117 |
1815 |
21034 |
320 |
97.5 |
|
| 15 |
8 |
88.89 |
139 |
1102 |
21416 |
500 |
85.3 |
|
| 16 |
4 |
44.44 |
45 |
2927 |
21738 |
575 |
108 |
|
| 17 |
7 |
77.78 |
131 |
852 |
22013 |
218 |
67.1 |
|
| 18 |
8 |
88.89 |
142 |
895 |
22310 |
260 |
84.2 |
237 |
| 19 |
6 |
66.67 |
111 |
1817 |
22545 |
900 |
153.7 |
331 |
| 20 |
7 |
77.78 |
73 |
1988 |
22748 |
255 |
75.7 |
326 |
| 21 |
6 |
66.67 |
74 |
1929 |
22972 |
460 |
82.3 |
346 |
| 22 |
5 |
55.56 |
84 |
1688 |
23178 |
1900 |
121.8 |
421 |
| 23 |
8 |
88.89 |
45 |
1751 |
23423 |
191 |
53.9 |
411 |
Not very good particularly early on in rounds 6 to 9 and never really recovered. Only 3 Hungry Jacks Burgers won this year! (only went and redeemed two - must have been on a diet?!)
| Correct tips |
|
|
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| 1 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
| 1 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
| 0 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
|
| 0 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
|
| 1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
26 |
27 |
| 0 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
| 0 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
|
|
|
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
|
| 1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
|
|
|
1 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
|
|
| 0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
|
|
|
0 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
The model never really recovered to the accuracy levels of 2011 and was severely impacted by the large wins recorded against the GWS which dramatically inflated the predicted wins over the coming two to three weeks for those teams that played GWS.
The finals series was less accurate than the previous 8 seasons - the reasons for this may or may not be examined over the coming summer
The 2012 winning team odds highlighting how dramatic the Carlton loss late in the season was. (odds taken on Tuesday morning prior to round commencing)
With the mediocre tipping results for 2012 and ending the season with an incorrect Grand Final tip it was time for a Blog Spring Clean.
Wiped from memory are the disappointing 2012 tips and we aim for the glory of 2011 where we actually beat the bookies.
Summer updates will include tweaking of the tipping model - which should settle down with the GWS factor evening out a bit more. We look forward to the release of the 2013 fixture and running the Carlo Monty model to crystal ball who will do well in 2013
