Monday, January 28, 2019

2019 - New town, new job, light weight footy tipping...

The WBR blog has moved from the leafy environs of Eltham to the aptly named Happy Valley in South Australia (a seemingly lone Hawks supporter in the bi-modal land of Crows-Port supporters).  The work-based move (i.e. not wanting to work for the global company in China) has been a very big shift which is still taking time to settle into a new routine - I am sure that it will.  However, in the meantime, the football tipping is progressing but at a lower priority - last years lack of posts indicates that this has been happening for a while.

I am spending less time on the monte carlo simulations for the end of year predictions and relying more on my forward prediction shot model as the guide for finals appearances.  Coupled with this I am focusing on the next round with a feature game plus the forward predictions four rounds into the future ("one month is a lifetime in footy") which will cause less frustration and angst compared to the variability of 20 rounds into the future.

That said; the end of year shot prediction model ranks the teams as such:

Richmond should lock in a top-four position and Melbourne supporters should see some glory this year.  There will be a battle for the other two top four positions and the staying in the eight group.  The games between this cluster of 7 should be weekly blockbusters and close entertaining games.

The outsider that the carlo monty simulations pick to watch is the Bulldogs - either a glorious year or a fans rollercoaster - my outside tip for 7th or 8th but some simulations have them very high up (subject to an early season on fire run of games).

Wooden spoon seems to be a battle between the Blues and Gold Coast - their matchups will determine the ownership.


Early predictions for Round 1:

Monday, March 26, 2018

Round Two

Incorrect Round One tips: waterlogged Suns swim past Roos and Crows cough up a handy lead (oh and lucky correct tip with Geelong over Demons).  Enough said of round One as round Two is upon us already...

Overall tips:

Yes the model has picked Collingwood over the Giants (The Giants were impressive with their running at Manuka Oval on the weekend and I am quietly concerned with this tip).  The Crows Tigers game is discussed in detail below.  The remainder of the games are also interesting and I predict there will be a much larger spread of tip results in everybody's competitions this week compared to the round one favorites  dominating.

Feature Game: Crows to ride the wave of the home ground advantage

Adelaide to win by 10 points (but not said with enough confidence or historical support).

Similar scoring shots predicted with similar accuracy.  The accuracy with the previous head to heads is only 60% but with a sub 30 average error.  The Crows have been consistently favorites just pipping the frequency of the Tigers favoritism.

Thursday, February 1, 2018

Round One: Feature game

This is a bit of work in progress - produced early as I am trying to automate the uploading of text and graphics: doing this as a bit of practice over the Christmas work enforced holiday period

The WayBeyondRedemption site is aiming to focus on the first game of each round in detail in the 2018 season.  This is linked to the work and family tipping competitions using the site as the arbitrator of family and social tipping where competitors on equal tipping points are separated via the margin tipping – which is carried out on the first game of each round.  Hence, extra attention is devoted to the feature game.

Tigers to outclass the Blues

The first feature game for 2018 is the now “traditional” first round clash and season opener Richmond v Carlton.  The two teams have met in the first round every year since 2012 (the opening game each year since 2014).  Richmond have won every encounter since 2014 and the model is confident that this will continue in 2018.  This tip must be tempered with the knowledge that the model has been wrong four times during the last ten encounters – three of those Carlton upset wins.  The 2018 prediction currently sits at a hefty 63 point thrashing of the Blues at the hands of the reigning premier.  This level of prediction has historically produced a correct tip 95% of the time – the only recent (since 2000) upsets have been a memorable Bulldogs victory over the 2000 Bombers in the last round and the Bombers 6 point loss to the Demons in a low scoring affair in 2012.

Currently Richmond are clearly the bookies favorite going into the game – rightly so for a reigning premier.  Richmond have been the clear favorite in the previous four encounters and are well worth considering  in the flexi tipping if you take a very conservative approach.  The Carlo Monty model will be spreading the flexi tips across three other games at this stage (currently spreading the 100 points across three games: Hawks, Roos and Crows).

The shot model employed by the WayBeyondRedemption site is anticipating a heavy scoring of up to 40 scoring shots for Richmond and as low as 16 shots for the Blues (assuming good ground and weather conditions at the MCG).  The previous five encounters has seen Richmond score an average of 27 scoring shots to Carltons 21.  Richmond have averaged 100 points to Carltons 75 during the same period.  The prediction for round one 2018 is for a 63 point victory for the Tigers.

The last ten games for Richmond have been very good – a drought breaking Premiership with other excellent finals games and a recent percentage of over 160%.  A narrow loss to Geelong in Geelong the only recent blemish.  The Carlo Monty model correctly tipped seven of the Tigers last ten games – getting the two Geelong encounters and the GWS tips wrong.

Similarly with Carltons last ten games the model correctly tipped seven but was more accurate with the margins with an average error of just over 21 points (being under 30 is the benchmark).  During the last five and ten games Richmond have clearly been (on average) favorite and Carlton very clearly underdog.  Interestingly Richmond have averaged 26 shots for and 20 against while Carlton have averaged 25 for and 23 against.  The healthy shots for for Carlton give a little bit of false hope for the supporters as the quality of opposition was noticeably different.

For home teams with odds of $1.25 to $1.35 since 2000 (some of the earlier odds were estimated) the model has an 80% success rate of tipping winners: 87 of 108 tips.  Only one of the incorrect tips had an error of greater than 63 points – adding some confidence to the Richmond tip of 63 points.

Closer to the actual game day I will update the margin predictions from the major newspapers (The Age and The Herald Sun).

Both The Age and Herald Sun tipsters have overwhelmingly backed Richmond (Chris Judd being the loyal exception).  The Carlo Monty tip comes in as the second largest.  Computer tippers are slow to upload their tips prior to the first Thursday game - shall update later today.

Well: Ric 17 19: 121 d Car 15 5: 95
36 scoring shots to 20: Tigers under perform to my model by 4 shots, Blues over perform by 4 plus the added benefit of a high accuracy.  I'll take the correct tip (along with the other 90 odd% of tippers) and lament the 37 pts adrift with the margin tip

Thursday, December 14, 2017

Forward prediction model – historical perspective

This blog examines the historical performance of the Carlo Monty forward prediction model since the final eight system in 1994.  The model predicts the team rankings 22 games into the future from round one each season.  The model is based on a simple regression model of weighted averages of the previous 20, 10 and 5 games scoring shot differences.  A positive number equals more wins than losses while a negative number indicates more losses.  Within the model a forward shot difference prediction greater than 5 is a good indicator of grand final form.  A value more negative than minus 5 and the team is in contention for the wooden spoon.  Zero to five is roughly a final’s appearance and zero to minus five is the duldrums.

In the 24 seasons from 1994 to 2017 the team predicted to finish atop the ladder appeared in the finals 23 times (Brisbane did not appear in the finals in 2005).  However, on seven occasions the premier was correctly forecast.  The premier came from the top four predictions 71% of the time – the most recent exceptions being last years Tigers and the previous years Bulldogs with the Tigers being more of a surprise, surprisingly.  Notably both were correctly tipped on Grand Final day. (This time last year I was predicting a Cats: Crows grand final).

Looking at the ladder at the end of the home and away season the proportions are:

So the predictions for the end of 2018 are shown below:

As noted in previous posts when compared to the simulated seasons the models are looking for possible upward movements of Hawthorn and Essendon at the expense of Geelong and Western Bulldogs; and cause much media attention running into the finals.  Richmond and GWS may swap spots higher up the ladder. The battle for the wooden spoon is for Brisbane to get off the bottom and possibly force Gold Coast to take the "prize."