Saturday, April 27, 2019

Round 6: No time

Very busy on this "10 day holiday"

Just the tips this week (after a disastrous round last round) (model tips Freo by half a point; flexi tips Bulldogs for 50)

Wednesday, April 17, 2019

Round Five - a Hawks v Cats cracker

If in doubt pick the home teams this week - except Brisbane.  That is the advice from the model this week; with three anticipated close games, three middling and three worthy of a streak tip (although throwing in GWS and West Coast but not Melbourne who are all on the cusp of the models streak tip criteria)

Flexi tips allocating 50pts on the Hawks over the Cats (feature game); 30 points on the Roos over the Bombers (two teams the model consider very similar) and 20 points for the Pies over Brisbane at the Gabba.

Feature game: Hawks v Cats

The model is anticipating a very close game with the Hawks being victorious by a point (with less scoring shots but a higher accuracy): both tams to score in the 90's.

The model has had a good run with a ten game MAE of 25pts (including a blowout in early 2017 which saw Geelong win by 86pts).  The model has tipped 8 winners out of the last 10 games (all of these games have been at the MCG)

Geelong have been trending higher scores in the last 5 games (only 7 of the 20 scores have been over 100).  The Hawks defense may prove the defining difference - perform poorly and lose; perform well and win.  This is quite evident when comparing the trend graphs for both teams and Geelong shade Hawthorn with accuracy in the short term but not in the long term trends.

Game could go either way but I am sticking with the gutsy 1 point prediction for the Hawks (and putting 50 flexi points on the game also!).  I have a bottle of Chimay Bleue to enjoy while watching from home in Adelaide.

Monday, April 8, 2019

Round Four - A quick upload

Busy with work interstate and helping with a house pack up/ interstate quick run through of the tips and no feature game this week...

Tigers over Port in Adelaide the stand out tip.

West Coast to comfortably win the Derby.

Essendon to topple Lions is one I would not tip based on my gut but model is flagging as a reasonable home win and worth a flexi tip.

Melbourne to topple Swans in Sydney is the other shocker of a model tip - if this one comes off it will be in the minority of tippers: Guttsy call and flexi!

Collingwood for the streak tip over the Bulldogs - I would like to think this one will be closer but this tip sits well with me.

Well a good week for the Flexi tips - all three coming in and boosting the model into the top 400 on !

A impressively low MAE of just under 15pts and an even spread - pushing the model to 4th on the Monash normal tip competition - this will be hard to maintain but here is hoping.

Frustratingly close tips with Cats and Hawks - making for a great feature game in the upcoming round.

And Adelaide - well the model has them finishing 11th at the end of the year so getting close to officially goooone.  Perhaps a tad early to call it.  But calling Sydney not going to be in finals this year.

Monday, April 1, 2019

Round Three - a lot of close games including the opening feature game

The Carlo Monty Model is predicting a 1 point win for the Cats over the Crows (although if I rounded off the model predicts a draw - a rarity in the football tipping community) in Adelaide - a rare away win (I hope) for matches between these two.  I was tempted to have the Brisbane v Port game as the feature as I think this will be a close and entertaining game wit ha narrow victory to the home team.

Giants v Tigers was possibly another consideration but I think the fragility of the Tigers could be exposed - currently going for a small victory for Giants but the model would not be surprised with a 6 goal runaway in final quarter drubbing.

Freo Saints game was not considered for feature status despite a close finish predicted - quality of play has not been great - could easily be an away win for the Saints.

Collingwood versus Eagles could also be a good game to watch but not enticing enough for flexi tip and not a runaway win prediction suitable for a streak tip.

Melbourne Essendon game will not be pretty to watch - model is still backing the Dees who have not been good.  Note have predicted a streak tip for the Dees (I am nervous about this tip)

Bulldogs predicted to keep their fans happy with a percentage boosting home win.

Feature game
Model has only had a 50 50 success in recent times although a respectable MAE of 23.5.  Home teams have been favoured with wins.  Cats have averaged more scoring shots but Crows have been more accurate - current prediction is 86 each with a fraction over for Cats:

If it is a draw I predicted it.
If Cats win - I told you so: Finals bound; Oh Dear Crows season over
If Crows win - they have bounced back; Cats stumble

How good are the Cats (better than the Crows; but Crows had their chances and enough shots on goal - honorable loss but not far from being gone?)

Melbourne on the other hand - how bad is bad?  One good quarter against a not too highly rated team and then three quarters of stuff all.

Carlton offering signs of hope for the future; Swans looking at somewhere between 7 and 14th.

GWS and Brisbane rolling on - Brisbane impressing lets see how the next four weeks go.

West Coast, Bulldogs and Hawks up and down a bit.

Freo and Saints gave us a close game - Saints accuracy hurting again like 2018 despite early 2019 being reasonable.

Wednesday, March 27, 2019

Round Two - mainly home teams & Hawks v Doggies feature

This weeks tips have four games with margins under two goals and a maximum of six goals which should make for exciting viewing.  Hopefully, North and the Bombers put in better performances than last week - more so as the model is actually tipping both which could be very embarrassing.

Due to the predicted close nature of most games the model is only picking one game to be added to the streak tipping (streak tips are a long game: target for the year is to have a couple of tips each week - I want to get a streak over 20 this year).  Port  over Carlton is the sole streak tip this week.

Flexi tipping is more interesting this week with the 50% game tipping the Crows over Sydney - in Sydney.  A difficult one to convince me that the model will be correct as the Crows forward lien was demolished last week and Sydney have a good defense.  however, the Swans did not exactly impress either.  Whichever team loses (and particularly if they lose big) will receive a lot of media coverage in their home towns on Sunday/ Monday.

Richmond over Pies - odds are nicely even and I feel favor Richmond.  And North over Brisbane for the other - surely North have to bounce back at Docklands?

The all important tips:

Feature Game: Hawks v Doggies

Historically this is one game I go to with a close friend and my daughter (both mad Doggies supporters) and apart from seeing Bob Murphy go down a couple of years ago or when Buddy kicked about 1 goal 15 pts the games have been very enjoyable - with a mix of wins and loses.

Both teams go into this game with good wins the week before.  The model has had an excellent recent form on the big grounds (and a not so flash prediction hit rate on the indoor venue).  The Hawks have been favorite in 9 of the last 10 encounters and have averaged about 4 more scoring shots - scoring just over 100pts on average to the Doggies just under 80

The Bulldogs shot trend suggests that the Hawks will prevail but the style of play of both teams should be/ will be showcased on the large open spaces of the MCG


Well, another week with a 4, a just over flexi and one more to the active streak (albeit an active cautious streak of 2).  A round MAE of 36.7

Richmond seriously under performing and opened up a bit by the Pies.

Adelaide doing what I had expected from the model - providing the overall slight profit on flexi tips.

Essendon under performing again.

Carlton putting up a decent fight and showing some hope for their supporters.

Geelong  annihilating the Dees who have really dropped the bundle this year - based on the first two rounds the end of year projections have them missing the eight.

West Coast bounced back positively.
North dropped the bundle and things are looking grim for the rest of the year.

Hawks lost to the better team on the day and the Doggies are impressing me and my model moving into the projected finals quite highly at the moment.

Freo/ Gold Coast - lost the flip of the coin on this one : (

Next weeks feature game:  has to be Crows v Cats which I am tipping Cats by 1 with a big flexi tip to boot.

Thursday, March 21, 2019

Round One Feature Game: Crows v Hawks

The sellout battle of the birds in Adelaide is the chosen game for a number of reasons this week:
* Firstly I don't like doing feature games on Thursdays - (similar to the FMI web site: shout out to the margin tipping competition)
* Secondly I have recently relocated to Adelaide and as I follow the Hawks (not a financial supporting member this year) it is a personal choice to focus on this one
* Thirdly my models suggest that it will be a close game - favoring the home side by 12 pts)

Previous ten encounters

The Carlo Monty model has had an 80% success rate with the games since 2011 - a period when Hawthorn has been a strong favorite in 4 games and a slight favorite in 3.  

Hawthorn has won 8 of these encounters - notably the last one by 45 points.

The average margin of error with the tips has been 23.7 points - not great but well below the 30pt benchmark.

During the last 10 games Hawthorn has averaged 28 scoring shots per game and Adelaide have improved from 24 to 25 (last 5 games compared to the last 10).  Similarly, Hawthorn has averaged 111pt recently to Adelaide 92.

The Carlo Monty Model is predicting that these trends will be reversed in the 2019 opening round with a narrow win to Adelaide with a 12 point margin in a reasonably high scoring affair (approximately 110 to 98).

A free-flowing game is anticipated with open forward lines - a concern is whether the Hawks forward line can be both fed from the center and whether it can improve on the lowered standards (compared to recent Hawthorn history) forward conversion.

The Adelaide and Hawthorn recent shot model trends have similarity the recent increase in the Crows attack swings the model to favor the Crows.  The closeness of the attack and defense of both teams (plus the obvious class of both teams) indicates a close game.

The class of Hawthorn (and I believe but do not include in the model: the coaching ability of Clarkson) could shine through although I still anticipate/ predict a Crows victory and have them tipped for the win and for 25pts in the Flexi competition but I have not included them in the streak competition.

Friday night change to flexi tip: moved from placing flexi points on Adelaide to Bulldogs (over Swans)



Adelaide: 7 13: 55
Hawthorn: 12 15: 87

WBR tipping results: tip incorrect, Margin Error: 44pts,  flexi NA, streak NA

Well as a Hawks supporter I am happy with the 4 points.  AS a modeler not so happy - incorrect tip and a large margin error.  The Hawks 27 shots on goal were as anticipated (accuracy a tad low), the coaching was superb and the delight/ surprise was the dominance of the defense in keeping the Crows to a meager 20 scoring shots - both well down on the recent average against Hawthorn but tellingly much lower than the model was predicting for this year.  it will be interesting to see the effect on next weeks predictions once all of this rounds games are concluded.

The free flowing nature of the game did not really kick in until just before half time.

Also very timely to switch the flexi points to the Bulldogs (missed out on the Brisbane win over West Coast - more on that in next weeks blog and the round up of this week  - but as a teaser there were a number of player based models that were predicting a (albeit narrow) Brisbane victory)

Next weeks feature game will be Hawks v Doggies at the G

Monday, January 28, 2019

2019 - New town, new job, light weight footy tipping...

The WBR blog has moved from the leafy environs of Eltham to the aptly named Happy Valley in South Australia (a seemingly lone Hawks supporter in the bi-modal land of Crows-Port supporters).  The work-based move (i.e. not wanting to work for the global company in China) has been a very big shift which is still taking time to settle into a new routine - I am sure that it will.  However, in the meantime, the football tipping is progressing but at a lower priority - last years lack of posts indicates that this has been happening for a while.

I am spending less time on the monte carlo simulations for the end of year predictions and relying more on my forward prediction shot model as the guide for finals appearances.  Coupled with this I am focusing on the next round with a feature game plus the forward predictions four rounds into the future ("one month is a lifetime in footy") which will cause less frustration and angst compared to the variability of 20 rounds into the future.

That said; the end of year shot prediction model ranks the teams as such:

Richmond should lock in a top-four position and Melbourne supporters should see some glory this year.  There will be a battle for the other two top four positions and the staying in the eight group.  The games between this cluster of 7 should be weekly blockbusters and close entertaining games.

The outsider that the carlo monty simulations pick to watch is the Bulldogs - either a glorious year or a fans rollercoaster - my outside tip for 7th or 8th but some simulations have them very high up (subject to an early season on fire run of games).

Wooden spoon seems to be a battle between the Blues and Gold Coast - their matchups will determine the ownership.


Early predictions for Round 1:


Well the Richmond and Bulldogs tips were excellent but being 101 points off the mark with North/ Freo coupled with underestimating Port, dramatically overestimating Essendon plus being pleasantly surprised by Hawthorn and Brisbane made for an overall disappointing round from a model perspective.

The Carlton: Richmond game went to the modelling script and offers hope for the blues fans as there were signs of effort.

The Pies: Cats game was entertaining enough and justifies (in my mind) the models long term season expectation that these teams are similarly placed as final eight contenders.

Melbourne's poor offence showing - lowest score  since a 56 point showing against Richmond early last year is a worrying sign that the model is over rating the Demons.  I think it is more a case of Melbourne under performing rather than Port over performing - although it was an impressive display from a lot of newcomers/ well coached.  Ports score for is slightly above the recent average.

Hawthorn shut down Adelaide's offence in magnificent style and their offence performed to model expectations.  Adelaide were out played - also of note is they led in most of the traditional stats of kicks, hand passes, marks etc but in reality got clobbered.

Bulldogs and Swans performed to the models expectations.  Bulldogs versus Hawks next week is the game to watch.

The Suns performed above expectations, the Saints a bit below: resulting in an entertaining enough game.

Bombers and North - terrible.