Wednesday, March 20, 2013

Round 1

Let us forget the rush of blood that saw us tip Carlton in the NAB Cup (the season had not even started and I broke one of the rules by placing a tip on the pre-season - the other rules are remove all emotion when tipping; have faith in the model; remember a month is a lifetime in football and take it one week at a time (broke that rule with long range forecasting!).  So to Round One:


The Swinburne tipsters (http://www.swinburne.edu.au/lss/statistics/footytips.html ) are in line with the bookies predictions (as referenceced on the footy tipping site: footytips.com.au).

 I differ with a narrow win over the Brisbane Lions for the Doggies at home (one of only a few I am expecting to tip for the Dogs during the year and despite the pre-season form of Brisbane); I also tip a narrow win for North over Collingwood.

Chance of a perfect burger round about 10% (8.8 to 11.0)
 





















































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Where will Collingwood be placed on the ladder at the end of the home and away season?




If you go by tipsters at The Herald Sun (after weighting all of their predictions) they favour Collingwood finishing atop the ladder at season end.  The bookies quoted on the same page place them fourth (but second favourite to win the flag). (Ladder Position based on bookies odds for the 8; weighted positions from Herald Sun tipsters and Carlo Monte program)




Now this is all well and good particularly if you are a fan of the Pies.  However, the Carlo Monty algorithm favours position 14.  This of course set the alarm bells ringing and frantic checking of the various look up tables and cross referencing within the "super computer" (and we defer to earlier posts that the long range predictions greater than 6 rounds are and should be a concern.

 After a few thousand iterations of the Carlo Monty "Season 2013" the average number of games (as a minimum) to make it into the 8 is 12.41 (9th spot averages 11.76)



So using a round number of 12 wins, let us have a close look at Collingwoods fixture:

First, a quick review of their end of 2012 season form which plays a reasonably significant role in the model used:

Rnd 23: Essendon: 72 lost to Collingwood 104
Rnd 22: West Coast 107 defeated Collingwood 58
Rnd 21: Collingwood 61 lost to North Melbourne 91
Rnd 20: Sydney70  lost to Collingwood 78 (Sydney 25 scoring shots to Collingwood 18)
Rnd 19: Collingwood 91 defeated Saint Kilda 85

 Essendon's end of 2012 form is memorable for the distinct lack of any shape of quality.
The loss to West Coast in Perth was a big defeat.
North easily accounted for the Pies
The game against Sydney was good but Sydney did have 7 more scoring shots
A six point win over the Saints (after an easy GWS game the week before)

 Summary home and away form (used in the model) is not particularly startling (middle of the pack form arguably).

 Now let us look at the games Collingwood are facing this year: (and the long range predictions)
We are looking for 12 wins to get into the 8 (I have pencilled in 7 at the moment and a lot of tight games: percentage will be important for the Pies as wel las the wins as I am predicting more big losses than big wins)(end of season percentage prediction: 94.2)

Round Home Away Prediciton Home Away Margin PreviousOpponents previous opposition and

Form coming in
1 North Melbourne Collingwood North Melbourne 103 101 2.0
2 Collingwood Carlton Collingwood 104 98 6.5 Richmond W
3 Collingwood Hawthorn Hawthorn 102 116 14.0 West Coast Geelong L W
4 Richmond Collingwood Richmond 103 98 4.7 Western Bulldogs Saint Kilda Carlton W L L
5 Essendon Collingwood Collingwood 77 86 8.8 Saint Kilda Fremantle Melbourne L L W
6 Collingwood Saint Kilda Saint Kilda 90 109 18.6 Sydney Essendon GWS W W W
7 Fremantle Collingwood Fremantle 118 85 32.2 Gold Coast Richmond Hawthorn W W L
8 Collingwood Geelong Geelong 91 99 7.3 Essendon Richmond Western Bulldogs W W W
9 Collingwood Sydney Collingwood 99 99 0.5 Fremantle Hawthorn Brisbane W L W
10 Brisbane Collingwood Brisbane 107 87 20.0 Carlton Essendon West Coast W W W
11 Melbourne Collingwood Melbourne 94 85 8.4 Hawthorn Fremantle Richmond L L L
12 Collingwood Western Bulldogs Collingwood 93 77 15.7 Bye Port Adelaide Saint Kilda -- L L
13
14 Port Adelaide Collingwood Port Adelaide 100 86 14.1 Sydney GWS Bye L W --
15 Carlton Collingwood Carlton 100 86 14.2 Sydney Bye Hawthorn L -- L
16 Collingwood Adelaide Adelaide 97 101 4.5 West Coast Gold Coast Bye W W --
17 Gold Coast Collingwood Gold Coast 90 88 2.1 Richmond Brisbane Adelaide L L L
18 Collingwood GWS Collingwood 98 75 23.3 Essendon Sydney Western Bulldogs W L W
19 Collingwood Essendon Collingwood 93 82 10.3 Hawthorn GWS Western Bulldogs L L L
20 Sydney Collingwood Sydney 114 88 25.2 Western Bulldogs Richmond West Coast W W L
21 Hawthorn Collingwood Hawthorn 109 85 23.4 Saint Kilda Richmond Essendon L W W
22 Collingwood West Coast West Coast 97 101 3.8 Geelong Essendon Gold Coast W W W
23 Collingwood North Melbourne Collingwood 94 90 3.7 Hawthorn Essendon Adelaide L W L

 Rnd 1: should be a close game.  North need to start the season well given their tough season.
Rnd 2: Blockbuster; predicted narrow win to the Pies but could go either way.  May depend heavily on how easy or difficult the Rnd 1 games are for each club.
Rnd 3:  If Hawks beat West Coast in Perth in Rnd 2 the model predicts a comfortable win to the Hawks - Collingwood may benefit from the Hawks being worn out from the previous week but the game against Carlton should be equally draining for the Pies.  The model favours the Hawks in nearly all scenarios.
Rnd 4: Richmond should have had an easy game the week before against the Dogs (sorry Dogs but this year you are one of the easy beats)
Rnd 5: a tight one against the Dons but the Pies are favoured
Rnd 6: If the Saints are on a roll with their easy start to the year (aside from Sydney the week before) the Pies are predicted to struggle and go down to the Saints
Rnd 7: Freo in Freo after they have an easy week the week before against the Gold Coast.

 So after 7 rounds it could easily be 2-5 with a percentage in the low 90's

 That makes it hard to pick up another 10 games and percentage.

 Rnd 8: Geelong (tough)
Rnd 9: Sydney (tough but winnable in Melbourne)
Rnd 10: Brisbane in Brisbane (getting a long way out to predict but pre-season form anyone?)
Rnd 11: if they loose to Brisbane and are on 3 wins morale will be terrible (this game swings in the model so 50:50; let us be generous and award it to the Pies)
Rnd 12: Bulldogs beatable
BYE
Rnd 14: Port Adelaide in Adelaide
....
let us reassess the model in the middle of the year but if the Pies are on 5 wins it is season over; if they are on 7 going into Rnd 15: they need 5 from the following - I see 2 certainties and a last round maybe if anybody cares then; the rest are tough)
Carlton - blockbuster tough
Adelaide - smokey currently predicted tight
Gold Coast - win to Pies
Essendon - win to Pies
Sydney in Sydney (Sydney bit win)
Hawthorn (similarly big win)
West Coast (in Melbourne tight but predicted WC)
North Melbourne (win to Pies; Roos long way from finals action?)
Conclusion:
In order for the Pies to reach the lofty heights of a lot of Herald Sun tipsters and the (often very good) opinion of the bookies the Pies need to win a lot of the first six rounds.

 My prediction of 14th may be too low; but a lack of September action for the Pies and lots of small paper headlines about Buckley under pressure in the middle of the year I think can be locked in pretty soon.







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