Thursday, May 2, 2013

Another 7; and six weeks of placing faith in the model...



With the six weeks of overseas travel combining business and pleasure about to start in a few hours time the waybeyondredemption blog will largely be in hibernation for the month of May.


Round 5 with 7 correct tips was OK but I would dearly have liked to have been one of the 7.9% who tipped a burger perfect round.  
 

The first and last games of each round have not been kind to me in the tipping this year:


And this weeks prediction of a narrow win by the Saints over the Pies could well and truly keep that tradition alive.  The model is going for three significant upsets this week compared to the bookies – if all three come in I will be back level with the bookies; if they all fail I will be six adrift and probably getting too far away to catch up.  However, in 2011 these chickens came home ot roost in the model; 2012 they abandoned the hen house; so let us see if 32013 picks up!

Upsets other than Saints over Pies:
* Port over North (in Hobart; if North played in Melbourne the home ground advantage would have given them an additional 8 points and a narrow win).
* The big one the Crows over the Hawks.  The Crows good defensive record, home ground advantage and the Hawks less than expected win over the Roo’s has given the Crows a three point predicted win.


The flexi tip almost managed to break even this week with a score of 96 – despite being above the site average four out of the five rounds the total for the year is only 401 (99 behind break even) and so far I have three sub 100 rounds.  At the same point last year I was on 716 and had 10 sub 100 rounds for the year.

The streak tipping is active and live once again on a modest 7 (the leader is on an impressive 23 – the top 25 streak tippers all would have had their hearts in their mouths in the dying minutes of the Hawks Roos clash as they all tipped the Hawks.


Placing the long term tips for while the blog is in partial hibernation:


The flexi tipping is slightly modified: the 100 points are divided equally amongst the no streak prediction games as opposed to doing the calculation based on Monday/ Tuesday prior odds.

If I get a chance to log in while travelling and making time to enter the odds I may update while in Europe and SE Asia.

The end of Round six analysis will happen sometime but the end of round 5 review highlights the:
·         * Poor form of Saint Kilda and west Coast
·         * the surprisingly good results for Essendon and Port
·         * The better than expected performance of Geelong
·         * The as expected win/ loss ratio for Sydney, Hawks, Freo, Brisbane, Carlton, Bulldogs and GWS

My end of round 5 ladder has only 7 teams in the predicted third of the ladder


More analysis of the prediction versus actual sometime over the coming weeks.

Good luck tipping.