Yes in a round with traditional rivals: Blues v Tigers and Hawks v Dons the game of the round turns out to be the first one for the two Adelaide teams to play at the Adelaide Oval. I base this on the opinions of the 55 margin tipsters (On-line, The Age and The Herald Sun) that I am following this year. The averaged opinion of all of these tipsters is a Port victory by just over 8pts (with a range of 28 points for Port to a 23 point win for Adelaide and a standard deviation of 10.8 pts - the lowest of the ten games so far this year). I myself am tipping Adelaide by 8.
The average opinion (including last nights 12 point win to the tigers) has six from ten so is actually one ahead of the bookies.
The historical showdown results are Adelaide 16 and Port 19. My tipping model is running at 63% having predicted Adelaide 17 times an Port 18.
My model is predicting a 25 to 28 scoring shot game which translates in my model to score ranges:
min 10% low average 90% high Max score shot % chance to win
50 75 87 100 125 25 71.26
56 84 98 112 140 28 26.79 and 1.95% chance of draw
With model tweaks I am prediction 101 to 93 in Adelaide's favour
No home ground advantage has been applied in the model although a small factor for crowd support is allocated to the "home" team. both teams have similar "injury" concerns with 6 unavailable players each as per footytips.com.au player rankings/ availability.
Both teams moving averages for shots for and against are close to each other but slightly favour Adelaide.
Hopefully all of these indicators result in a close and entertaining game.
Friday, March 28, 2014
Monday, March 10, 2014
First six rounds – swings and roundabouts – Scraggers the ones to watch
Rather than placing a massive amount of faith in my end of season monte carlo modelling predictions for the top eight (I leave that to many others on the web) I am placing some more emphasis on the next six rounds.
Historically I have found that my modelling is fairly stable for four to six rounds into the future – it takes some massive unexpected results (ten goal differences to predicted typically) to alter a lot of the predictions. What does have an impact though is when the swing games (plus or minus three goals) fall in favour of my models underdogs. A couple of these in a row to a team gives a boost to the recent form factors and can change quite a number of predictions in the three to six week time frame.
Historically I have found that my modelling is fairly stable for four to six rounds into the future – it takes some massive unexpected results (ten goal differences to predicted typically) to alter a lot of the predictions. What does have an impact though is when the swing games (plus or minus three goals) fall in favour of my models underdogs. A couple of these in a row to a team gives a boost to the recent form factors and can change quite a number of predictions in the three to six week time frame.
The first six rounds this year have 32 swing games:
Home Away Ground Margin Pred (winner)
The Bulldogs appear in swing games in all six rounds: predicted to be 3-3.
Gold coast feature five times at 4-1.
Six teams feature four times each: St Kilda (2-2), Fremantle (2-2), the Tigers (3-1), Brisbane (2-2), Sydney (3-1) and Roos (3-1).
How these eight teams perform in the early part of the 2014 season will play a significant role on the make up of the final eight. Particularly the nine games between these teams. How the Bulldogs perform in their first four encounters are crucial for the scraggers supporters to have some hope in 2014 – on paper it is a big ask with an away win in Perth followed by games against the Roos who on paper should win and similarly the Tigers then an away game against the GWS.As the Doggies are my second team I do have a soft spot for them and do hope that they are the team to surprise the majority of expert tippers. If they can go into round seven at 5-1 with a percentage of 105 or so they will be getting a lot of media attention as well as shortening odds for a spot in the eight.
The Bulldogs are trending upwards for their offense and have been fairly steady with a leaky defence. What I will be looking for with the doggies are signs of a tighter midfield which can lead to less pressure on the defence and a few more attacking shots on goal. If the average shots on goal from their opposition can drop by three to five per game and stringing six rounds of this effort together then the structure of the for and against chart above would be putting the doggies into final eight contention. There is however a lot for them to do and I currently rank them 13th for the end of the year.
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