Kicking off with a near-perfect round, albeit a compact four-game lineup, set the tone for an intriguing start to the footy season. While I was momentarily distracted during the Brisbane versus Blues showdown, catching only the final seconds on the radio, Carlton's narrow victory added a tantalizing twist. A one-point decider like this could have significant ramifications down the line, potentially reshuffling ladder positions. It's a reminder to heed all model checks, especially when they hint at close calls.
The comeback stories from various teams underscore the unpredictable nature of footy. The Suns' jubilant opener contrasts with the Tigers' stumble. Meanwhile, GWS and the Swans came out swinging, leaving the Pies and Melbourne with much to ponder. Amidst this flux, I'm content with an opening round Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 17 and a streak of 2, with a Monash score of 41.
Looking ahead to Round 1, my model is diverging from bookie predictions in three matchups: backing Hawthorn against Essendon, Adelaide to conquer Gold Coast at Carrara, and the boldest call, Fremantle to edge past Brisbane by a mere point. Flexi tips allocate confidence points accordingly but avoiding eth Freo: Brisbane clash (Hawks 50; Adelaide 30 and Melbourne 20). Furthermore, I'm leaning towards GWS and Port Adelaide to maintain a conservative streak.
The rationale behind the Hawthorn pick disregards preseason setbacks, relying solely on model projections. Similarly, tipping Fremantle over Brisbane challenges conventional wisdom, yet the models stand firm in their prediction. Adelaide's consistent performance in recent years lends credence to their favoured status against Gold Coast.
While Geelong and Melbourne tips have raised (Carlo Monty internal model) eyebrows, adjustments have been made based on model algorithms and trimmed two predictions. Anticipate tight margins in several matches this round, promising many nail-biting finishes.
Tips:
Carlton: 12
Pies: 18
Hawks: 6, flexi 50
GWS: 40, streak
Cats: 6
Crows: 8, flexi 30
Demons: 7, flexi 20
Port: 42, streak
Freo: 1
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