Carlo Monty 2024 ladder prediction

The community that puts forward final ladder predictions has grown dramatically over the past decade (or two).  The Carlo Monty model has been around long enough to know that predicting the ladder prior to the start of the season is kin to purchasing a Tattslotto Quick Pick with a fair few people able to “win” a Division 6 or 5 and thus consider themselves Footy Seers : )

The main point of experience gained over the years of putting ladder predictions out there is to remove all emotion from the tipping/ predictions.  Carlo Monty focuses on the moving averages of shots for and against and the accuracy of the shots on goal and applies some ELO thinking.  A fairly clunky excel model based on chart analysis – but it consistently does slightly better than the bookies (the thinking of the crowd).  The long-term predictions for the end of season ladder are more like Division 6 Tattslotto.

The model simulates the entire season and continually updates an end of year ladder which feeds into the simulated finals.  The predicted Premier jumps around a bit early in the season and settles down with about the middle of the season.  Early predictions for some teams vary greatly with some long winning or losing streaks which need to be viewed with doubt early I the season.

Based on the Carlo Monty model (moving averages, winning streaks, simulated season…) the considered opinion for the 2024 ladder (at the end of the home and away season) is:

Ladder position at End of H&A	Team
1	Adelaide
2	GW Sydney
3	Brisbane
4	Melbourne
5	Western Bulldogs
6	Port Adelaide
7	Carlton
8	Geelong
9	Collingwood
10	Sydney
11	Fremantle
12	Richmond
13	St Kilda
14	Hawthorn
15	Gold Coast
16	Essendon
17	North Melbourne
18	West Coast

 

The predictions are broken down into four groups:

·       Those competing for the top 4 (6 teams)

·       Four teams competing for position 7 or 8; and 9 and 10 (missing finals)

·       Five teams that will shape the fates of the two groups above them

·       Three teams that are expected to battle it out for the wooden spoon.

Looking at the top six teams they are identified with a clear or trending positive shots on goal model (more shots on goal compared to opponents' shots on goal).

Adelaide is positively viewed as their offensive trend has been increasing consistently for a number of rounds and the defence has been stable with a slight downward trend.  The expectation is that Adelaide will have focused on improving its defence over the off season.

GWS has a similar trend but with a shorter period of offensive increase and a more erratic defence trend.  Shot on goal accuracy could improve also aiding their seasons performance.

Brisbane will be in the mix for a final 4 position.  The trends flag keeping an eye on the Brisbane defence in the first 6 or so games.

Similarly, Melbourne should be considered a contender for the top 4 although the team has been cruising along with good attack and defence and a breakdown in either or both is possible.  Again, the quality and consistency of the defence will be the focus for the model.

The Bulldogs are the Carlo Monty pick for outside chance for Premier.  The trends are all in the right direction.  How deep they go in the finals will depend largely on home ground advantage in finals: a fifth spot home ground could be viewed better than an interstate final by finishing in fourth place.  I would still prefer to finish 4^th than 5^th and I hope the doggies do.

The team on the cusp of being included in the six teams Carlo Monty considers are battling it out for the top four is Port Adelaide. The first six to eight games of the season will need to see Port improve the defence and attack simultaneously.  If they remain stagnant or drop off Port will be battling it out in the cutthroat mid ladder group(s).

The remainder of the eight will be battled out by Carlton, Collingwood, Geelong, Sydney and possibly Fremantle.  All of these teams have similar shot trends.  Geelong is the team to focus on as they may remain reasonably consistent and, in the mix, or drop dramatically.  The dramatic drop is on the cards as the shots for is trending down and the shots against is strongly trending up.  Preseason viewing should influence the early season tips.

Collingwood are notably over rated by the bookies – and I think should be very happy that they got to put the 2023 Cup in the cabinet.

Richmond, St Kilda, Hawthorn and Gold Coast trends are not very impressive but games between themselves and the teams fighting it out for the lower final eight will have a very big impact.

The final three teams are characterised by a big gap between shots for and against.  Hopefully both North and West Coast become more competitive and shake up the teams vying for spots 6 to 15.  Wooden spoon watch for Essendon I predict will be discussed about mid season.

Bombers v Hawks a potential window into both clubs game play for 2024 and a rare model disagreement and official tip change!

The bookies have this as a close game with odds about $1.90: $2.00.  The Carlo Monty model initially agrees and currently has Essendon as slight favourites predicted to win by 3 to 4 points (3.5).  We must go back to 2018 when the teams were similarly well matched.

However, the two main internal models used by the Carlo Monty supercomputer has thrown up the one in twenty differences of opinion flagging this game as a “hidden blockbuster”: a game where the stars align to produce a hopefully close game warranting in depth analysis of the game play.  Given it is also the first home and away game of the year for both teams it may be hyperbolic or seer like in the conclusions that could be drawn from one team convincingly winning over the other.

Given that both teams are in the “also-ran” grouping of teams not anticipated to worry the finals in 2024 the prediction of a “hidden blockbuster” could fall flat on its face and be a dreary example of two sub-par teams slugging it out for the four points.

Recent experience (last ten games) is a coin toss with the model having correctly predicted the winner 5 times, with a not very flash margin of error of 30 points.  The last prediction was incorrect in tipping the Hawks: an 11-goal thumping occurred.

Last Ten games

 

Reviewing the trends in more detail the Carlo Monty Institute is tipping Hawthorn by 7 (2 to10) points and allocating (at this stage) 30 flexi tip points.  The reasoning behind overruling the regression model in favour of the pure shot-based model is the consistent advantage Hawthorn have over Essendon with respect to the weighted shots for/ against and the weighted points for and against per shot on goal:

Team	Shots for	Shots Against	Points per shot for	Points per shot against
Essendon	19.36	23.93	3.32	4.37
Hawthorn	20.08	22.40	3.76	3.99

A large part of these statistics is based on the previous five games and based on 2023 ladder positions Hawthorn played higher quality teams in the last five games of 2023.

Additionally, any home ground advantage Essendon could be assigned is minimal (In 2023: both teams played on the MCG 14 times): Essendon as home ground will have a few more supporters than if they were the away team.

Post game analysis of score frequency and accuracy will hopefully highlight a promising year for one team.  A big win by either team warrants a closer examination of what has changed from last year and any implications for the following few rounds - a slightly tougher run of games for the Hawks although the next two played in Melbourne and then play Collingwood in Adelaide (which should be beneficial to the Hawks).  While Essendon have one interstate trip to Sydney then go to Adelaide for the gather round against Port (HAW: MEL, GEE, COL and ESS: SYD, STK, POR)

Battling to avoid the spoon: West Coast Eagles and North Melbourne's 2024 AFL Journey

As the 2024 AFL season kicks off, two teams find themselves grappling with the harsh reality of cellar-dwelling status. The West Coast Eagles, armed with a historically low Carlo Monty rating of -10, face an uphill battle to climb from the bottom of the ladder. Meanwhile, North Melbourne, although not plagued by as dire a rating, navigates a challenging landscape with a seemingly stable trend in scoring shots for and against. In this exploration, we examine the early-season challenges, scoring shot nuances, and potential upsets that await these struggling teams.

West Coast Eagles: A Daunting Climb from -10

The West Coast Eagles embark on the season with a disheartening Carlo Monty rating of -10, signalling the enormity of the task ahead. With crucial fixtures against North Melbourne looming in the second half of the season, the initial five games against formidable opponents like Port Adelaide, GWS, Bulldogs, Sydney, and Richmond are predicted to be more of the same carried over from 2023, likely resulting in a winless streak and a disappointingly low percentage. The road to redemption for the Eagles is paved with challenges, with improvement needed in defence and attack. Improving the defence is more important from a trending perspective and any improvement in the first five games should be viewed as a positive.

North Melbourne: need to change something. More of the same is not really an option.

In the contrasting realm of North Melbourne, the team faces a more stable trend (albeit a sad one) in scoring shots for and against, spanning at least 50 rounds and arguably 100 rounds. Despite the absence of conspicuous impacts from strategic playing style changes, a glimmer of hope emerges as scoring shots for show signs of improvement.

However, the fixture poses its own set of obstacles, with only nine games against the Carlo Monty Also Rans. A trio of away games against St Kilda, Gold Coast, and Essendon in the middle of the season presents winnable opportunities but also raises questions about potential upsets that could defy conventional streak-tipping wisdom - may need to consider avoiding tipping against North in these games.

Both West Coast and North will be watching Essendon's games closely as the Bombers could conceivably be winless prior to their tenth game against North (currently predicted as a narrow win to North at Marvel Stadium.

Both Essendon and Hawthorn have similar scoring profiles and both teams opening game (against each other) will colour the model predictions for the following rounds. The model prediction slightly favours Essendon but will come down to scoring accuracy with both accuracy for and points per shot against favouring the Hawks at present.

A Glimpse into Season 2024's Unpredictable AFL Landscape

In the fast-paced and ever-evolving (cutthroat) world of AFL tipping, predicting the outcomes of a season has become both an art and a science.  The Carlo Monty model (an excel behemoth now in its eleventh iteration and no doubt showing signs of age) dissects the game through the lens of moving averages, scrutinizing shots for and against to reveal trends that foretell the fate of teams in the upcoming season much better than the paid experts at various media outlets and bookies.  Well, that is the aim!

At its core, the Carlo Monty model revolves around the analysis of moving averages, seeking patterns and shifts within those trends to make informed predictions devoid of supporter emotion (Go Hawks). Over the years the model has evolved to project forward, an impressive (?) 22 games in advance, based on the nuanced difference in shots for and against. A shot metric has been developed and compared to the historical database of VFL/AFL(M) results and categorizes teams into Grand Finalists, Finalists, Also-rans (rebuilders/ new coach media frenzy mid-year), and the dreaded Wooden Spooners.

The 2024 AFL season highlights an evenness. Gone are the days of a standout grand finalist; instead, the competition boasts eleven teams firmly in the final eight contender's category! Moreover, five additional teams lurk in the shadows, poised to sneak into the finals with a combination of strategic wins, a stroke of luck, or notable developments in their gameplay - lots of potential analysis/ discussion by the tipping community and the various media.

The beauty of the Carlo Monty model lies in its ability to sift through the chaff and the wheat (via a lot of vlookups and the power of the Carlo Monty supercomputer), providing a lens to view the true contenders as well as focusing attention on potential swing games involving the wooden spooners and the "shadow" teams. A hopeful improvement in form of North Melbourne and West Coast could easily and unexpectedly shape the final eight. A couple of "lucky" wins or a surprising improvement in form might catapult one of these underdogs into the mix, altering the trajectory of the entire season.

The all-important Carlo Monty pre-season predictions are:

This is not the Carlo Monty final ladder prediction as that is generated from the game-by-game modelling (discussed in a future post). The end of year ladder prediction I prefer to focus on with 10 games to go in the season as the variability is just too great. I will put the above list into the ladder predictors such as the one at Squiggle.

Given the deliberate lopsidedness of the "fixture" a focus during the early rounds will be on the performance of Adelaide and Geelong. More of the season analysis in the next couple of blog post. The "smokey" for the flag is the Bulldogs - a top four finish or a home final in the eight warrants a stand-alone blog post.

The aim this year is to post predictions each week and generate a post on a feature game each week - either a "block buster" game or one that historically the model has done very well or very bad predicting the winner over the previous ten appearances.