It is the Swans Grand Final to lose

I should start with a declaration - I follow the Hawks and have done so since I was 5.  Additionally I will be waving the 1983 scarf and the 1976 beanie in Sydney on Saturday afternoon (who organised a work trip to Sydney months ago?!).  Despite my many years of following the Hawks I sadly must state that the 2014 Grand Final is predicted to go to the Swans (by about three goals).



As with previous Grand Finals the model automatically assigns the higher ranked team home ground status.  With this assumption the model predicts the Swans to be victorious by 25 points.



Now I think that it is a fair alteration to the model to remove home ground adjustments from the Swans inputs to the model.  If I view the ground as neutral the model predicts a 19 point win to the Swans.  If Hawthorn is assigned home ground advantage then the model still predicts the Swans victory albeit by a solitary point.



Given the Swans have only played less than a handful of games at the G this year (Melbourne, Richmond and Hawks) and Hawthorn has played over ten in the last twelve months neutral status to Hawks home ground advantage is a fair assumption I feel.



Other points in favour of the Swans include basic shots for and against - although I need to drill down a bit to determine some differences as both teams shots for and against are impressive (and deserving of the top two spots on the ladder).  Examining the games against the other top eight teams during the regular season and finals the Swans average 27.7 shots for and 20.54 against while the Hawks average 25.8 for and 24.3 against.  A healthy advantage to the Swans.



 





The Swans also go into the game with the bookies favouring them (not that the model uses this as an input as the model basically aims to generate my view of the appropriate odds).  Looking back at this years season and the odds before the game 73% of teams priced at $1.70 or lower have won the encounter.  Again an historical tick for the Swans.



Historically the model has also been correct 60% of the time fr Hawks: Swans encounters with the last eight at the MCG correctly tipped.



So what hope for the Hawks?


In short restrict the Swans forwards: Hawks midfield needs to limit the Swans push into the forwards and the Hawks backmen need to Monster the Swans firepower.  The Buddy: BLakey battle will be the pivot - with my prediction of whichever of these two gets ontop will be on the winning team and could quite likely be the best on ground.  Oh and for the Hawks to win the forwards also need to fire; well really all of them need to put in a blinder.  All in all I am expecting a close and exciting game with a final score line of about 100 to 80 (if the Swans win) but it could be 75 to 85 with a dominate Hawks backline and pin point accurate forwards.


Heart says Hawks but the model says Swans; and to quote many predecessors "Football will be the winner."

Finals Week 1

All home teams picked this week in what should be a good selection of games to watch (we want Hawks and Swans to both win so as not to meet the week before the Grand final).



The model initially picks Richmond to down the Power by a hefty 21 but weighted averages and the influence of Odds convert the tip to Port (Richmond would need to firm to sub $2.50 to change the model: or model needed to tip Tigers by 24+ to over ride Bookie Odds and Weighted form/ shot average rules).  It does however, suggest that Richmond warrant a wager at the current odds (if you are a betting person - declaration: I am not placing any hard earned on the game),



Also of considerable note is the very poor form of the model with these team combinations over the last ten meetings: I need all predictions to come true in order to move towards some respectability.



The footytips.com.au streak of 18 cannot be topped this year so hopefully it is good enough to allow me to stay in the top 1000 given the tipping is back in the pack and flexi has dropped out of the top 5% for the first time in three years. (well there is always next year - and Go Hawks).