2019 - New town, new job, light weight footy tipping...

The WBR blog has moved from the leafy environs of Eltham to the aptly named Happy Valley in South Australia (a seemingly lone Hawks supporter in the bi-modal land of Crows-Port supporters).  The work-based move (i.e. not wanting to work for the global company in China) has been a very big shift which is still taking time to settle into a new routine - I am sure that it will.  However, in the meantime, the football tipping is progressing but at a lower priority - last years lack of posts indicates that this has been happening for a while.

I am spending less time on the monte carlo simulations for the end of year predictions and relying more on my forward prediction shot model as the guide for finals appearances.  Coupled with this I am focusing on the next round with a feature game plus the forward predictions four rounds into the future ("one month is a lifetime in footy") which will cause less frustration and angst compared to the variability of 20 rounds into the future.

That said; the end of year shot prediction model ranks the teams as such:

Richmond should lock in a top-four position and Melbourne supporters should see some glory this year.  There will be a battle for the other two top four positions and the staying in the eight group.  The games between this cluster of 7 should be weekly blockbusters and close entertaining games.

The outsider that the carlo monty simulations pick to watch is the Bulldogs - either a glorious year or a fans rollercoaster - my outside tip for 7th or 8th but some simulations have them very high up (subject to an early season on fire run of games).

Wooden spoon seems to be a battle between the Blues and Gold Coast - their matchups will determine the ownership.

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Early predictions for Round 1:

Results

Well the Richmond and Bulldogs tips were excellent but being 101 points off the mark with North/ Freo coupled with underestimating Port, dramatically overestimating Essendon plus being pleasantly surprised by Hawthorn and Brisbane made for an overall disappointing round from a model perspective.

The Carlton: Richmond game went to the modelling script and offers hope for the blues fans as there were signs of effort.

The Pies: Cats game was entertaining enough and justifies (in my mind) the models long term season expectation that these teams are similarly placed as final eight contenders.

Melbourne's poor offence showing - lowest score  since a 56 point showing against Richmond early last year is a worrying sign that the model is over rating the Demons.  I think it is more a case of Melbourne under performing rather than Port over performing - although it was an impressive display from a lot of newcomers/ well coached.  Ports score for is slightly above the recent average.

Hawthorn shut down Adelaide's offence in magnificent style and their offence performed to model expectations.  Adelaide were out played - also of note is they led in most of the traditional stats of kicks, hand passes, marks etc but in reality got clobbered.

Bulldogs and Swans performed to the models expectations.  Bulldogs versus Hawks next week is the game to watch.

The Suns performed above expectations, the Saints a bit below: resulting in an entertaining enough game.

Bombers and North - terrible.