2018: Bottom five predictions

Both the Carlo Monty long term model and the short term (week to week) model has come up with the same five teams to finish up in the bottom five spots of the 2018 AFL ladder.  The wooden spoon will really come down to which of Brisbane, Gold Coast, Fremantle and Carlton does the best against the other three.  North Melbourne are in the mix but would need a horror year to get the spoon; they will be more pushing for 9th to 13th but both my models have them sitting at 14.


Gold Coast give up a home ground game to Fremantle (and play two weeks in a row in Perth).  Brisbane play Fremantle and Carlton once each potentially at a bit of a disadvantage.


Looking at the shots for and shots against trends for the four teams: All have similar trends with shots for averaging about 20 and shots against averaging 25.  Brisbane are performing better with both the trends and the shots for.  Brisbane is the model favorite for the wooden spoon but Gold Coast is a possibility with our analysis of the draw.  All five teams will be hoping/ aiming for a breakout from these trends either with a focus on tighter defence or a more aggressive attack: both I think is beyond their reach at the moment.