Carlo Monty 2024 ladder prediction

The community that puts forward final ladder predictions has grown dramatically over the past decade (or two).  The Carlo Monty model has been around long enough to know that predicting the ladder prior to the start of the season is kin to purchasing a Tattslotto Quick Pick with a fair few people able to “win” a Division 6 or 5 and thus consider themselves Footy Seers : )

The main point of experience gained over the years of putting ladder predictions out there is to remove all emotion from the tipping/ predictions.  Carlo Monty focuses on the moving averages of shots for and against and the accuracy of the shots on goal and applies some ELO thinking.  A fairly clunky excel model based on chart analysis – but it consistently does slightly better than the bookies (the thinking of the crowd).  The long-term predictions for the end of season ladder are more like Division 6 Tattslotto.

The model simulates the entire season and continually updates an end of year ladder which feeds into the simulated finals.  The predicted Premier jumps around a bit early in the season and settles down with about the middle of the season.  Early predictions for some teams vary greatly with some long winning or losing streaks which need to be viewed with doubt early I the season.

Based on the Carlo Monty model (moving averages, winning streaks, simulated season…) the considered opinion for the 2024 ladder (at the end of the home and away season) is:

Ladder position at End of H&A	Team
1	Adelaide
2	GW Sydney
3	Brisbane
4	Melbourne
5	Western Bulldogs
6	Port Adelaide
7	Carlton
8	Geelong
9	Collingwood
10	Sydney
11	Fremantle
12	Richmond
13	St Kilda
14	Hawthorn
15	Gold Coast
16	Essendon
17	North Melbourne
18	West Coast

 

The predictions are broken down into four groups:

·       Those competing for the top 4 (6 teams)

·       Four teams competing for position 7 or 8; and 9 and 10 (missing finals)

·       Five teams that will shape the fates of the two groups above them

·       Three teams that are expected to battle it out for the wooden spoon.

Looking at the top six teams they are identified with a clear or trending positive shots on goal model (more shots on goal compared to opponents' shots on goal).

Adelaide is positively viewed as their offensive trend has been increasing consistently for a number of rounds and the defence has been stable with a slight downward trend.  The expectation is that Adelaide will have focused on improving its defence over the off season.

GWS has a similar trend but with a shorter period of offensive increase and a more erratic defence trend.  Shot on goal accuracy could improve also aiding their seasons performance.

Brisbane will be in the mix for a final 4 position.  The trends flag keeping an eye on the Brisbane defence in the first 6 or so games.

Similarly, Melbourne should be considered a contender for the top 4 although the team has been cruising along with good attack and defence and a breakdown in either or both is possible.  Again, the quality and consistency of the defence will be the focus for the model.

The Bulldogs are the Carlo Monty pick for outside chance for Premier.  The trends are all in the right direction.  How deep they go in the finals will depend largely on home ground advantage in finals: a fifth spot home ground could be viewed better than an interstate final by finishing in fourth place.  I would still prefer to finish 4^th than 5^th and I hope the doggies do.

The team on the cusp of being included in the six teams Carlo Monty considers are battling it out for the top four is Port Adelaide. The first six to eight games of the season will need to see Port improve the defence and attack simultaneously.  If they remain stagnant or drop off Port will be battling it out in the cutthroat mid ladder group(s).

The remainder of the eight will be battled out by Carlton, Collingwood, Geelong, Sydney and possibly Fremantle.  All of these teams have similar shot trends.  Geelong is the team to focus on as they may remain reasonably consistent and, in the mix, or drop dramatically.  The dramatic drop is on the cards as the shots for is trending down and the shots against is strongly trending up.  Preseason viewing should influence the early season tips.

Collingwood are notably over rated by the bookies – and I think should be very happy that they got to put the 2023 Cup in the cabinet.

Richmond, St Kilda, Hawthorn and Gold Coast trends are not very impressive but games between themselves and the teams fighting it out for the lower final eight will have a very big impact.

The final three teams are characterised by a big gap between shots for and against.  Hopefully both North and West Coast become more competitive and shake up the teams vying for spots 6 to 15.  Wooden spoon watch for Essendon I predict will be discussed about mid season.