Swings and Roundabouts

Well, I was happy with the Saints tip. Bit shocked by the Adelaide performance and Disappointed in how badly I got Hawthorn wrong (64pt MAE!).

The conservative streak tipping is still going on 6 and the flexi broke even this week despite a big outlay on the Hawks. (I have not been able to determine my ranking in the flexi comp or streak on footytips.com.au; not sure if it is browser issue or with the website).

This weeks tips I have one over rule of the base model - tip switched from Port winning at home to a Melbourne away win (original tip Port by 7, modified final tip Melbourne by 15.  I am expecting a very good quality game.  The tip over rule modifies the flexi tips where I have spread 4 equal tips: Saints, Melbourne, Sydney and Geelong.

Models predicting 3 games by under a goal - hopefully I get them all correct and jump up the ladders.

Round 2: a lot of close games this week (watch Dogs v Gold Coast and Port v Tigers)

Although it was highlighted that the Hawks would have more scoring shots their accuracy was not as predicted and Stringer slotted in a couple of crucial goals from long range.  Bombers did win but my analysis is Hawks lost it.

The Pies are not going well (as predicted) and the model is predicting the Saints notch up a close win in Round 2.

Carlton rolling on, Richmond fielding a team - both as predicted.

Geelong snuck home but the Crows didn't.

Melbourne had a bigger win than I anticipated which makes the Doggies tip this week look shakey.

Flexi tips missed on Hawks and Crows but snagged 0.84 to take total to $2.45.

Streak was conservative and is on an active 4 (but 8 behind footytips.com.au leader who fell on the Freo win)

Tips this week:

Saints over Pies by 3: Flexi 50

Adelaide at home over Cats by 16; Flexi 20

Freo by 20 over North in Melbourne

Hawks by 9 over Melbourne (in a model over rule: to be discussed if I have time this week as I am at a conference)

Sydney comfortably over Bombers by 29

Dogs over Gold Coast by 12; Flexi 30 and probably the match of the round.

Port by 7 over Tigers (model thinks this much closer than my heart tells me (all Carlo Monte Models think this will be close so maybe another good one to watch)

GWS to account for West Coast by at least 37

One kick off a perfect round...even if it was a four game round formerly known as Zero

Kicking off with a near-perfect round, albeit a compact four-game lineup, set the tone for an intriguing start to the footy season. While I was momentarily distracted during the Brisbane versus Blues showdown, catching only the final seconds on the radio, Carlton's narrow victory added a tantalizing twist. A one-point decider like this could have significant ramifications down the line, potentially reshuffling ladder positions. It's a reminder to heed all model checks, especially when they hint at close calls.

The comeback stories from various teams underscore the unpredictable nature of footy. The Suns' jubilant opener contrasts with the Tigers' stumble. Meanwhile, GWS and the Swans came out swinging, leaving the Pies and Melbourne with much to ponder. Amidst this flux, I'm content with an opening round Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 17 and a streak of 2, with a Monash score of 41.

Looking ahead to Round 1, my model is diverging from bookie predictions in three matchups: backing Hawthorn against Essendon, Adelaide to conquer Gold Coast at Carrara, and the boldest call, Fremantle to edge past Brisbane by a mere point. Flexi tips allocate confidence points accordingly but avoiding eth Freo: Brisbane clash (Hawks 50; Adelaide 30 and Melbourne 20). Furthermore, I'm leaning towards GWS and Port Adelaide to maintain a conservative streak.

The rationale behind the Hawthorn pick disregards preseason setbacks, relying solely on model projections. Similarly, tipping Fremantle over Brisbane challenges conventional wisdom, yet the models stand firm in their prediction. Adelaide's consistent performance in recent years lends credence to their favoured status against Gold Coast.

While Geelong and Melbourne tips have raised (Carlo Monty internal model) eyebrows, adjustments have been made based on model algorithms and trimmed two predictions. Anticipate tight margins in several matches this round, promising many nail-biting finishes.

Tips:

Carlton: 12

Pies: 18

Hawks: 6, flexi 50

GWS: 40, streak

Cats: 6

Crows: 8, flexi 30

Demons: 7, flexi 20

Port: 42, streak

Freo: 1