Friday, August 8, 2014

Round 20 tips

Charts below show the Herald Sun and The Age Margin tipsters data plus my own model tips for this week.  The Tigers v Dons and Brisbane v Adelaide are flagged in the model as potential upsets opposite to these tips (i.e. Tigers by 27 and Brisbane by 16)



The Fremantle Geelong game has one of the smallest spread of Margin predictions this year (need to confirm with FMI tips when they go online).  Also the Pies v WCE game has a combined avergae margin of 0.3pts infavour of the Pies (a clsoe one to round out the round)














Wednesday, August 6, 2014

Longtime between drinks

The WayBeyondRedemption blog has been lacking activity over the last few months - too much work and not enough time spent in airport lounges or exotic locations watching Australia TV and tapping away at excel spreadsheets.



Busy this week also but I have made time to document what the model is predicting:



* the 2014 flag is Sydney's to lose

* if the Swans lose it will be (hopefully) to Hawthorn

* the Hawks have to get there first and probably will

* the Cats could get to the final but their era of dominance is coming to an end

* unless fremantle beat Hawthorn in the home and away clash  forget them this year

* the final 8 is all but set (but who cares winner is not coming from outside top 4)

* Gold Coast and Pies to fight it out for 8th and 9th



The Carlo Monty model has a very convoluted ranking methodology (short, medium and long term aspects that ar weighted).  Below is the table of "long term" rankings going into each round so far and predictions for the rest of the season.

Hawthorns strong form over the entire year is historically outstanding (Essendon a few years ago are the only team to go a whole season in the green "premiership form".  But note, Sydney are peaking just right.  Coupled with the difference in opponent strength in the last few rounds and my predicted finals run you can view either Hawks are toughened and ready or the Swans are refreshed from less less exertion.  The model favours Swans in the final game of the season.





The Hawthorn v Fremantle game in two weeks is the swing game to watch - a win to Freo and they have a crack at the Grand final.  Hawks win by a lot they become flag favorite, Hawks win by less than four goals Swans still favoured.  Given recent form and model expectations Hawks will win that game but I am looking for the quality of win.



The Cats have been winning but not as well as predicted in most circumstances this year and the long term shots for and against trend has finally turned and indicates to me the end of the era:















For comparison here are the Hawks, Swans, Freo, Pies and North graphs:

































Model predictions for top 8 (based on no where near as many iterations as Matter of Stats) but enough:









Let us see how many Richmond fans complain about 9th (and Pies fans about 11th) (and everybody else about essendon finishing 7th?)  But flag will come from top 4



Just to refresh your memory from pre season bookies odds: