The model is throwing up Geelong v Adelaide (at Simonds) to be the game to watch in round One 2014. It has also been thrown up as a focus of the flexi betting based on the model expecting this to be closer odds than what the bookies are actually offering (i.e. I am in disagreement with the bookies and think Adelaide have a better chance than they are given credit for: hence I need to look at this game in more detail). The alternative flexi bet offering suggested by my model is Collingwood v Fremantle at Etihad which is based on the current TAB sports odds compared to the model estimation of the odds: my model suggests the Pies should be favoured over the Dockers.
The simple option is to split the flexi betting 50:50 over these two games however, the considered opinion from analysing the past four years of modelling was (particularly as it is not real money but only footytips.com.au flexi “money”) to go the crash through or crash philosophy of 100% on one game per round. This would have moved our past two years ranking up a few notches – even though we were in the top 5% both years. That said I have placed early “wagers” on the footytips.com.au website to lock in the odds now and I can review at the one week out from round one.
The simple option is to split the flexi betting 50:50 over these two games however, the considered opinion from analysing the past four years of modelling was (particularly as it is not real money but only footytips.com.au flexi “money”) to go the crash through or crash philosophy of 100% on one game per round. This would have moved our past two years ranking up a few notches – even though we were in the top 5% both years. That said I have placed early “wagers” on the footytips.com.au website to lock in the odds now and I can review at the one week out from round one.
In order to come to a final decision on what I think will be the closest game of the round (and to offer the blog reader(s) some more analysis to consider) a bit more depth is warranted. Firstly, in this blog I am having a look at the Geelong v Adelaide game, I aim to look at the Pies v Dockers probably next weekend.
The cats have won the last six encounters in Geelong (held over the last decade) and aside from the narrow victories in 2009 and 2005 where they managed wins with less scoring shots the victories have been fairly routine. What is disappointing is that the model has overestimated Adelaide’s chances in the last three encounters although the 2 point loss in 2009 the Crows did have more scoring shots.
Looking at the games played in Adelaide the Crows definitely score more heavily while the Cats maintain essentially the same number of scoring shots. The model is running at 60% for the last ten games in Adelaide; compared to 50% for games in Geelong - neither is particularly impressive or comforting. Overall for games Geelong play in the model has successfully tipped the winner in 233 of 333 games since the start of 2000 (70%) with Adelaide’s comparison numbers being 209 of 326 (64.1%) (the overall model during this period is 64.6% from 2646 games)
Looking at the recent form of both teams other than against each other it is clearly evident that Geelong has a dominant comparative position for scoring shots for and against and I think that this weighs heavily on the bookies or more accurately on the punters who place actual money with the bookies. There is some concern going into the round as the Cats average points per scoring shot of 3.321 and average against of 3.674 suggests that their form is not as strong as 12 months earlier (suggesting being under pressure in attack and not applying as much pressure on oppositions at the other end). Although Geelong’s numbers did drop in the finals and are better at the end of the 2013 home and away season; but the model takes into account the last games played so finals for one team get counted. Adelaide’s numbers in comparison are a healthy 3.739 for and a slightly worse than average 3.607 in defence.
The bookmakers currently have the Cats a quite strong favourite at $1.30 and the Crows at $3.50. I estimate it as a much much closer contest at $1.96 to $1.99 with both sides predicted to have 26 scoring shots (assuming the weather is good). Twenty six scoring shots gives a typical scoring range of 78 to 104 so I am expecting a close game with scores in the 90’s and a winning margin of under a goal.
Overall, on balance and with home ground advantage Geelong should win in what I am predicting will be the closest game of the round.
As I am predicting such a close encounter it may also be worth putting 25 or 50 flexi points on Adelaide in the hope of an upset where Geelong kick too many behinds and or the Crows are quite accurate. If it is wet then I may just flexi tip in favour of the Crows to the tune of 50 points based on a lower scoring shot total and favouring the defence of the Crows over the Cats based on score per shot against. At the moment I have locked in 50 points on the Crows.
The conclusion of all of this? Well it is a first for my footytips.com.au experience - tipping one team to win the tipping contest and the other team for the flexi. Perhaps (??) I should go and put some real money on a draw - which I estimate at a 2.63% chance which is on par with the bookies typical 40:1 offering.
