As the 2024 AFL season kicks off, two teams find themselves grappling with the harsh reality of cellar-dwelling status. The West Coast Eagles, armed with a historically low Carlo Monty rating of -10, face an uphill battle to climb from the bottom of the ladder. Meanwhile, North Melbourne, although not plagued by as dire a rating, navigates a challenging landscape with a seemingly stable trend in scoring shots for and against. In this exploration, we examine the early-season challenges, scoring shot nuances, and potential upsets that await these struggling teams.
West Coast Eagles: A Daunting Climb from -10
The West Coast Eagles embark on the season with a disheartening Carlo Monty rating of -10, signalling the enormity of the task ahead. With crucial fixtures against North Melbourne looming in the second half of the season, the initial five games against formidable opponents like Port Adelaide, GWS, Bulldogs, Sydney, and Richmond are predicted to be more of the same carried over from 2023, likely resulting in a winless streak and a disappointingly low percentage. The road to redemption for the Eagles is paved with challenges, with improvement needed in defence and attack. Improving the defence is more important from a trending perspective and any improvement in the first five games should be viewed as a positive.
North Melbourne: need to change something. More of the same is not really an option.
In the contrasting realm of North Melbourne, the team faces a more stable trend (albeit a sad one) in scoring shots for and against, spanning at least 50 rounds and arguably 100 rounds. Despite the absence of conspicuous impacts from strategic playing style changes, a glimmer of hope emerges as scoring shots for show signs of improvement.
However, the fixture poses its own set of obstacles, with only nine games against the Carlo Monty Also Rans. A trio of away games against St Kilda, Gold Coast, and Essendon in the middle of the season presents winnable opportunities but also raises questions about potential upsets that could defy conventional streak-tipping wisdom - may need to consider avoiding tipping against North in these games.
Both West Coast and North will be watching Essendon's games closely as the Bombers could conceivably be winless prior to their tenth game against North (currently predicted as a narrow win to North at Marvel Stadium.
Both Essendon and Hawthorn have similar scoring profiles and both teams opening game (against each other) will colour the model predictions for the following rounds. The model prediction slightly favours Essendon but will come down to scoring accuracy with both accuracy for and points per shot against favouring the Hawks at present.
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