The model for Hawthorn is predicting three tight games and three regulation wins. Expecting the final game of the home and away to determine if Sydney have a home final or not – expecting both teams to be in the top four comfortably. Prediction 5 Wins.
Geelong have what are expected to be two very close games –against North and West Coast – neither having a big influence on the eight and Geelong are favoured in these games. Predicting 6 wins for the Cats running into the finals. The tightness of three games suggesting that they will not be able to overcome the Hawks percentage to finish atop the ladder. The round 22 game may decide who has the home final between the Cats and Swans.
Sydney the model expects to pick up five wins – dropping a game against Geelong and playing a large role in determining where Collingwood and Richmond end up.
Fremantle are expected to have three or four percentage boosting games but probably not enough to leapfrog the Swans. The defining game in the model is the round 19 clash with Carlton – currently predicted to be a draw. Expectign to cruise to six wins (possibly five if the last game does not impact on final ladder position).
Essendon I am expecting to feature in four very tight games and two under three goals. Win half, lose half. End up fifth (or wherever AFL, WADA, ASADA... determine).
Richmond I also expect to win three and comfortably make the finals (only to bow out the following week?). A couple of close games and a couple of percentage boosters (but percentage does not really matter for the Tigers as they are well ahead of Pies and Port, Blues and Crows and well behind the Bombers).
Collingwood are generously given four wins in the model (first past the post version; the Monte Carlo simulation has them a bit all over the place). The team to watch for shaping the bottom half of the eight but pretty sure they will play the first week in Melbourne.
Port will feature in some big wins and big losses with the last game of the year for them to potentially decide eighth or ninth (remembering that ninth may get you a finals appearance if Essendon has points deducted for this season?). Percentage may determine the difference between 8 and 9 so keep an eye on the size of the big wins and big loses.
Carlton have too many close games for the model to predict that they will fall into the eight – possible but will require finals like intensity from now. If they lose too many of the next few then the last game against Port may not be the blockbuster hoped for.
Crows: three narrow wins will not help the percentage. A big win over Bulldogs and another over Melbourne may give the Crows fans some hope but the eight is a long shot for them.
Predictions for the rest:
(Roos: Causing grief for others?)
Images for team predictiosn not shown are on the next two blogs - could not seem to get the images to "fit" onto this one page. Never had a limit problem before.
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