A Glimpse into Season 2024's Unpredictable AFL Landscape

In the fast-paced and ever-evolving (cutthroat) world of AFL tipping, predicting the outcomes of a season has become both an art and a science.  The Carlo Monty model (an excel behemoth now in its eleventh iteration and no doubt showing signs of age) dissects the game through the lens of moving averages, scrutinizing shots for and against to reveal trends that foretell the fate of teams in the upcoming season much better than the paid experts at various media outlets and bookies.  Well, that is the aim!

At its core, the Carlo Monty model revolves around the analysis of moving averages, seeking patterns and shifts within those trends to make informed predictions devoid of supporter emotion (Go Hawks). Over the years the model has evolved to project forward, an impressive (?) 22 games in advance, based on the nuanced difference in shots for and against. A shot metric has been developed and compared to the historical database of VFL/AFL(M) results and categorizes teams into Grand Finalists, Finalists, Also-rans (rebuilders/ new coach media frenzy mid-year), and the dreaded Wooden Spooners.

The 2024 AFL season highlights an evenness. Gone are the days of a standout grand finalist; instead, the competition boasts eleven teams firmly in the final eight contender's category! Moreover, five additional teams lurk in the shadows, poised to sneak into the finals with a combination of strategic wins, a stroke of luck, or notable developments in their gameplay - lots of potential analysis/ discussion by the tipping community and the various media.

The beauty of the Carlo Monty model lies in its ability to sift through the chaff and the wheat (via a lot of vlookups and the power of the Carlo Monty supercomputer), providing a lens to view the true contenders as well as focusing attention on potential swing games involving the wooden spooners and the "shadow" teams. A hopeful improvement in form of North Melbourne and West Coast could easily and unexpectedly shape the final eight. A couple of "lucky" wins or a surprising improvement in form might catapult one of these underdogs into the mix, altering the trajectory of the entire season.

The all-important Carlo Monty pre-season predictions are:

This is not the Carlo Monty final ladder prediction as that is generated from the game-by-game modelling (discussed in a future post). The end of year ladder prediction I prefer to focus on with 10 games to go in the season as the variability is just too great. I will put the above list into the ladder predictors such as the one at Squiggle.

Given the deliberate lopsidedness of the "fixture" a focus during the early rounds will be on the performance of Adelaide and Geelong. More of the season analysis in the next couple of blog post. The "smokey" for the flag is the Bulldogs - a top four finish or a home final in the eight warrants a stand-alone blog post.

The aim this year is to post predictions each week and generate a post on a feature game each week - either a "block buster" game or one that historically the model has done very well or very bad predicting the winner over the previous ten appearances.