Long range forecast for round one

With the tweaking of model v8 occurring in conjunction with a bottle of red and the Melbourne Cup it is a little difficult to believe the numbers the monte carlo model is returning for the end of 2014 ladder - a lot more tweaking and manipulation of the various factors needs to take place.  However, the model is sufficiently robust to look at the round one predictions so this is probably officially the earliest round one predictions for the 2014 season.  I will look at each of the games in successive blogs and use the opportunity to highlight each teams form going into the 2014 season.  By the time I finish reviewing the nine games I will have enough confidence to describe the models full season/ end of season predictions.

So starting with game one round one:

Collingwood versus Fremantle: last ten meetings:

 

We have to go back to 2004 for the last meeting at Docklands between these two.

The current model prediction is:

 

Looking more closely at the form going into this match: Collingwood (with a "patent pending" scoring shots for and against weighting based on the previous 20 games)

  

 

The weighted scoring shots for compared to the weighted shots against is 26.23 : 23.03 going into season 2014.  The scoring shots for has bounced around the 25 to 27 mark during Nathan Buckley’s coaching tenure and the scoring shots against has been uncomfortably close for most of that period.  The later part of 2013 saw a tightening of the defence but during the last weeks of the season and the finals saw a rise which has an impact on the forward projections for Collingwood about six games into the season. Collingwood’s scoring accuracy of 3.50 places them in the lower half of the competition.  The defence capability coupled with the scoring accuracy are the two areas to focus on for the pies in the off season.

Fremantle’s tight defence under Ross Lyon is well known and has been more stable than the offense but the trends are showing the two getting closer in the near future.  The focus for the Dockers should probably be on stabilising the attack as this has shown the greatest variation over the last couple of seasons.  The scoring ability for and against are both averaging 3.5 so in the middle to lower end of the competition.

The next blog shall cover the "battle of the bridge" clash between GWS and the Swans...(wonder who the mode lwill predict for that one?)