Why would my model still be picking Saint Kilda over West Coast when I have stated that the Saints are Gone (with a capital G)? Well, I am only going for a 3 point win (104 to 101) but the mystery lies in the losses the Saints have had this year versus the form of the Eagles.
Compared to my previous predictions West Coast have had very big losses to Fremantle, Hawthorn and Carlton – each having a big impact on the expected for and against values (and relative rankings) versus the actual.
The Saints although performing quite poorly (dramatically compared to my preseason predictions) (and starting to get media attention) but they have had what I classify as narrow losses (less than 18pts) to Gold Coast (performing reasonably consistently above expectations this year), Richmond (doing well if variable – a bit above my expectations but not the stellar hype of some of the early season media coverage), Sydney (reigning premiers) and Bulldogs (hard to explain this brain fade: Saints had more scoring shots). They of course have had big losses – Essendon and Collingwood, North and Adelaide.
My heart tells me Eagles will prevail but my model tells me I should tune in for the last quarter. It will be more entertaining than the other Sunday game.
The Adelaide Swans game I also propose will be of more interest than the bookies predict. Home ground advantage comes into play here plus Adelaide’s healthy percentage despite recent poor form/ wins against lowly teams by less than impressive amounts (plus they had more scoring shots than Fremantle in that loss and the loss to Hawthorn was gallant.
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