Having read a number of mid year analysis of teams performances based on various MARS type rankings (Footy Maths and MAFL) and comments on FootyForecasters and Power Rankings pre season rankings compared to now – particularly with respect to how Adelaide are travelling – I thought it suitable that I put my two cents worth into the blogsosphere.
As I base my teams rankings on final predicted ladder position which in turn is based on week to week predictions based on historical performance all crunched through an iterative model a few hundred times my approach is a bit different to most of the others. I do think there is some cross over with FootyForecaster.
During the pre season I ran the 2013 model over a thousand times to examine how I thought the fixture impacted on each team and came up with the bold conclusion that Collignwood was going to have a hard time and that Adelaide would have a similar number of tight games (and that the Saints would do well: obviously there are flaws in the model). The result of the end of season ladder predictions I massaged into a weighted average position and then ranked the teams based on this average ladder position. This had Adelaide and Saints coming out #1 and 2 at the end of the pre season (left hand side of the table below). I then repeated the number crunching at the end of round 11 which has Sydney and Geelong #1 and 2 (right hand side of table below). The movements and differences were discussed in an earlier blog.
But taking the analysis a step further I compare the ranking points (average expected end of season ladder position) and now make some comments on which teams are performing as I expected and which are under performing or exceeding my expectations. The following table summarises the number crunch:
A positive number indicates a performance better than expected, negative is worse. Zero would be as expected. The relative better or worse performance summary on the right is based on the top, middle and bottom third rankings (so despite Hawthorn performing 78 points better than expected they just sneak into the bottom third on a point rank scale).
Essendon performing much better than I expected and Collingwood doing better than I expected. Similarly Gold Coast. Not much media attention has been given to Geelong and Sydney but I do think they are performing a bit better than most commentators thought. Carlton rounds out the top six better than expected performers.
Fremantle, Richmond and Bulldogs (and Port?) all performing a bit above expectations. Freo and Tigers do have positive things to point to for the season. Bulldogs are a bit all over the shop and overall not a great side but a couple of unexpected (to me) wins bump them up. Ports shots on goal and general season I think fairly puts them in the middle of the pack. North I also think are accurately placed. The Hawks although dominant and performing in a class above most failed to nail the lowest teams by as much as I expected – whether this is taking it a bit easy is I think incorrect; my interpretation is that they are performing about where I expected.
The bottom six has GWS about where I thought they would be. West Coast and Brisbane are not having good years and the ranking accurately reflects their season to date. Similarly I think Adelaide has had a bad year and will be getting much more media attention – I do think they benefited from a favourable fall of the fixture last year and did predict that they would have lots of tight games this year (a year of opportunity to dominate with a very small percentage). My rankings rate Adelaide’s relative under performance with that of Melbourne (off a lower base of expectations). The major fall from grace is the Saints – I had greater expectations and their tumble down my ratings table is the most dramatic – a lamentable fall. Perhaps the media blowtorch will now be turned to the Saints now that the Melbourne carcass has been beaten to a pulp and the media seems to have forgotten for a while medical issues that were dominant leading up to round one.
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