Finally the model pays for itself with a free burger. Although there are another 333, 820 people who won a burger on footytips.com.au this last weekend – as Hungry Jacks is privately owned I am sure the owner Jack Cowin was barracking for the Blues to win on Friday; or perhaps he is banking on all of those free burgers upsizing with a drink and chips?
Anyway not since round 12 last year have I had the pleasure of printing off the burger coupon – Bulldogs esque in nature? This time last year we had three coupons in the bank (and five more correct tips in). Of course with all of the favourites winning my fellow tipsters and the bookies also all “won” burgers so I am still well behind in the modellers tipping challenge. I expect this week to also see a commonality of tips amongst the modellers – but I have gone for the upset with Port over Sydney.
The model is suffering this year with a lot less home team wins than normal (just averaging 50.5% compared to the historical 57%). The cluster of unexpected home losses by less than 2 goals is where the damage has been done this year (and persisting with tipping the Saints!). The above graphs is data for this year. The graph below is for 2010 to 2012. The 2013 data is filling in the gap in the graph evening out the average?
Streak tipping is still active but the leader is on an impressive 41 (three clear of second place) with only 8 others on 34 or more. At the start of the year I thought 50 would win the streak competition but it is looking like 60 will be needed.
Flexi tipping also went well this week with a >100 week (only the 5th time this year); ranked in the top 15% on just under 1000pts (which is 436 behind the same spot last year and 202 points behind “break even” for this year). In need of a couple of big weeks to have a chance of bettering my target (of being in the top 200 at the end of the season).
Other targets from New Year need:
- Three more burgers
- Only allowed 7 more incorrect tips for the year (mathematically possible!)
- Need to beat the bookies (need to make up one pick each week (again mathematically possible!)
Obviously Burgers are now the main focus of attention; along with modifying the model for 2014 (rebuilding phase?)
This week’s tips:
Richmond might be added to the streak depending on teams on Thursday.
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