Short summary is the model has bombed out so far with respect to overestimating Saint Kilda, West Coast and Adelaide and under estimating Essendon. The others are all reasonably close (at least I say reasonably).
Looking at the models predicted ladder at the end of round 10 (yes I had promised at the end of round 6 but work and holidays delayed that a little):
So starting from the bottom:
Predicted bottom third:
No surprises with GWS being zero and a low percentage (model predicted 70.8%; actual is even worse)
I had Bulldogs on a solitary win (game one against Brisbane) with a percentage of 80. They are still in the bottom third but with two extra wins and a percentage of 77. The two wins against Saint Kilda and Port Adelaide the doggies did with less scoring shots than their opposition.
Gold Coast were predicted to be two wins and 80%. Still in the bottom third with 4 wins and 94%. Beating Melbourne, Bulldogs, GWS and Saints (in first round) on its own does not deserve inflated commentary regarding their development. However, good efforts against Hawthorn, Geelong and Sydney offer good longer term hope.
I had predicted Essendon to be 15th at this stage. Obviously very wrong – the poor end of 2012 plays a big part in the incorrect tipping. Essendon have 5 more wins and about 40% points more than I expected. Of the wins the close win over Fremantle (who had an extra scoring shot) and the big win over Collingwood are noteworthy. The win over Adelaide who had an equal number of scoring shots also maintained the models perception of Essendon being lucky in that opening game of the season). Karma restored with Brisbane winning with the same number of shots. GWS and Melbourne regulation wins. Of interest in my model is that Essendon have maintained a high level of their best players being available – this has a smallish effect in the model and perhaps I need to increase the impact of this.
Melbourne I predicted would be on three wins and 91%. Their poor season has them at 1 and 51%. My incorrect predictions were Port and Gold Coast.
Rounding out my predicted bottom three I had Collingwood on 3 wins and 91%. They are on 6 wins and 97%. Wins over North, Richmond and Geelong being the differences. I still maintain that Collingwood will have a hard time making the 8 and that percentage will be their Achilles heal.
Summary of bottom third: 4 “correct”; 2 incorrect: Essendon (I still feel currently over rated and will fall back from their existing position a little – will check longer range predictions in next blog) and Collingwood (showing improvement over the model but still facing a lot of close games that will get the media in a frenzy about round 18).
Middle third:
I had North at 14th with 4 and 96%. They are 14th on 4 and 113.
Richmond predicted to be 13th on 4 and 98 – with their win over West Coast they are on 6 wins and an extra 10%. Close win over Carlton despite 5 more scoring shots by the Tigers); 17 point win despite 7 more shots over Saints and one more scoring shot over Port but a big win have defined their season to date rather than a grossly improved form. Although win over West Coast may be a turning point in changing my opinion – another few rounds will tell. I still rate them as a long way off top 4 quality and are not a realistic hope of a semi or grand final..
I had Port on 5 wins and 98% They are on 5 and 107. Of note is Port needs to improve their accuracy on goal. Their wins are almost equal goals and behinds. Their losses are either equal goals and behinds but the opposition have a much greater goals to behinds or Port kick lots of points (have more scoring shots) and loose. More kicking practice over bye round!
I had Carlton to be on 5 wins and 100%. They are on 6 and 122 (and just inside the top third). Carlton are about where I thought they would be the win over West Coast despite one less scoring shot but a 24point win being the difference. Percentage boost has come courtesy of GWS, Melbourne and a bit more than expected from Adelaide.
I had Brisbane sitting at 8th on 6 wins and 104%. They are under performing compared to the model with 3 and 75%. The home losses to Collingwood and Carlton are telling. Poor kicking against Adelaide also cost them dearly. Where I thought they were unlucky to an extent last year, this year I think the slide has definitely started.
Finally I had Fremantle on 6 wins and 107%. They are performing slightly better on 7.5 and 125. The round 10 loss to Adelaide is a concern when coupled with their consistently low “best available player” numbers. But they are currently tracking a little above where I expected.
Middle third summary: Port, Tigers and Roos where I expected; Blues and Freo close; Brisbane disappointingly under performing.
Top third:
Summary first. Hawks, Swans and Cats as expected (Cats a fraction better than expected). Saints (going, going,... Gone?), West Coast (imploding a bit: classified as going but not gone); Crows (faltering but model a bit unlucky as Adelaide (and Pies) were expected to feature in a lot of close games).
Adelaide:Narrow losses to Port, Hawks and Freo could easily have gone the other way. Still the smokey in the model predictions. Next blog examining the longer range predictions will be of interest to Adelaide fans.
West Coast. Loss to Port was particularly bad for the model. West Coast are just not “clicking” properly this year and their shots on goal accuracy could do with a lift in critical games.
Speaking of not clicking. The Saints with their narrow (<18 points) losses to Gold Coast, Richmond, Sydney and Bulldogs were really all regulation – less scoring shots, no excuses really. The big losses are also bad. If they manage to defeat the non clicking Weagles this week then I will only classify the Saints as gone. If the Weagles beat them then it is Gone with a capital G I am afraid – officially rebuilding, probably new coach talk?? (a job for Terry Wallace or Rodney Eade?)
At the other end of the scale: Sydney with 7.5 wins and 127% are a fraction above where I had expected them on 7 and 120%.
Cats similarly their 9 and 126 versus the predicted 7 and 108 is close – and ominous. Get them a “home” final and I expect the model will have the grand final between Hawks and Cats in the majority of instances. If the Cats have to play Freo or Swans interstate come September this opens it up a bit.
And at last: The Hawks on 9 and 149% are one game and 30% ahead of where I expected them. Ominously for all of the other teams the model has the Hawks as favourite for the 2013 year by a long way (makes me a happy Hawker despite the poor tipping performance). Given the big percentage increase over my prediction has come from games against last years top quality teams (plus the last couple of weeks) it is difficult to see any footy tipping models tip against the Hawks for the rest of the home and away season - making it a little more difficult for me to catch up 9 or so games on Swinburne, MAFL, Nemesis Moriarty Footy Maths and Footy Forecaster.
More of the full season modelling in the next blog – as it is a long weekend and I will actually be home I might be able to kick start the computer to do a couple of hours of number crunching. Something to do while watching my non bookie favourites triumph??
No comments:
Post a Comment