With gritted teeth... Round 1 analysis...

The only highlight of the 11 day round and only source of consolation while I languish in the bottom 4% of the Footytipping.com.au community and am the brunt of scorn from all and sundry is that despite only picking two correct (the worst result since using the emotion free Carlo Monty tipping model) is that I am equal with the bookies.  Note: I traditionally use the bookies odds as of Tuesday prior and this was before the Fremantle plunge.

Not only was the week particularly noteworthy for the large number of non-favourites getting up but the difference compared to my predicted wins were also well off for 5 of the games.  The following graph highlights the band within which the vast majority of predictions have fallen over the last 5 years.Makes the depression of poor tipping all the more noticed as an off seasons worth of tinkering with the model appears to be for naught!



The range of "upsets" in round one and the longer term impact on the model we will need to wait and see; but such a large number of unexpected wins will play havoc with the model (more so if they are actually outliers; if they are a true reflection of 2013 form then a couple of weeks will see the model settle down - the end of round 6 comparison will be the guide).

Notes: Richmond ran out of legs.  Freo had more fit players (19 v 14 on "player sickness index"); Sydney cruised? GWS better than expected?  Gold Coast improved: Saints dropped.  Hawks had it and lost it (is Lake the answer?) and Melbourne - oooooohh dear.

Referring to previous posts - I did say Adelaide will be the source of many a tipsters woes (although it must be said that they did manage the same number of scoring shots (I count rushed as a shot on goal).  Also: Collingwood needed to win against North to have a good crack at the tipsters end of year predictions - we will wait and see on this one but North did underperform but not as much as Melbourne.

On the footy tipping website I am ranked:
Tipping: 433210 out of 450131 (7 picks adrift)
Streak: 2277 out of 19353 (7 picks adrift and re-set to zero after the Hawks went down)
Flexi: 5412 out of 7970 (on 29 points; well behind the leader on 440)

Burgers won: zero

Compared to the bookies:
2 vs 2

One behind Swinburne.

So with teeth gritted and grinding onwards to the Round 2 preliminary predictions:



Home teams are favoured and only three games are picked for the streak tipping.  Flexi options will be considered once odds are checked tomorrow.