Well at least round 2 was better than round 1 – but that would not be hard. I still want to know how somebody on Footytipping.com.au can be on 18 correct tips!
Round 1 produced 33 perfect tipping records and round 2 highlighted the dominance of the favourites with 51812 perfect tipsters – I sadly was not one. Faith in the model is truly tested in times like this and the poor showing in the first round will take a bit to catch up; however that said I am only one behind the bookies and can still achieve the 4 burger goal. Flexi tipping broke even.
Correct tips: 9/18 :50% (Bookies 10)
Flexi points: 129
Burger won: zero
The tipping for round 2 fell down with the Saints who I am still in two minds whether they are over rated in the model or whether they will hit their straps this week? The model is still predicting good things for the Saints in the next three rounds.
The Hawks also upset the model – by a considerable amount. As highlighted earlier this was a swing game in the model and predicts great things for the Hawks come the end of the year. A big win by West Coast over Melbourne should swing the Weagles back into the mix in the model but at present they are a bit shaky in the deep into the season predictions.
Collingwood and Richmond will be reviewed after Round 6. Currently they have not moved much on the early predictions but as i have said round 6 should tell us whether the form in the model has settled down and compares to the predicted form prior to the season start.
But one teams form is definitely a concern:
Melbourne – what can we say? The poor performances are going to impact on the model. The model works on tighter/ more competitive ladder percentages than Melbourne are delivering. There was a GWS effect last year that dragged the model down by overestimating the ability of teams that beat GWS one week and what was expected the following week (despite having an easier run around the park.
Onto Round 3 tips:
The Geelong Carlton game will probably be the highlight of the round as a spectacle but the Gold Coast Brisbane game can certainly shake up the model predictions in future rounds. Interesting to see how tired the Hawks and Pies are. Richmond rolling on?
Also note North was not given a home ground advantage for playing in Hobart – this is usually worth 8 points in the model. I gave GWS the home ground advantage for Manuka – in the scheme of things it does not matter in the model for this stage of the GWS development.
We also don't give home adv to Hobart or Canberra. Our criteria - min of 4 games (or was it 3?), which means Hawks at York qualify.
ReplyDeleteAlso... do you think you are adjusting enough for rise of Rich, decline of StK?
I think the rise of Richmond is too early to state yet. I had them pencilled in for two narrow losses in rounds 1 and 2. Game against Bulldogs I think Tigers should win - the test will be Collingwood who I am predicting to loose to the Tigers. But Fremantle in Freo; Geelong and Port in Port will bring the Tiger army back to worrying about ending up ninth.
ReplyDeleteSaints have GWS and over rated Essendon. If these go worse than expected then decline has to be used in the same sentence as the Saints. I think a Saints decline is more on the cards than a Tiger revival (at this stage).
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Hawks in Launceston is a home ground advantage - more vocal Hawks fans per square km than in most suburbs in Melbourne. Home ground advantage to me is loud and boisterous fans - ever since the sprinklers were turned off at the Moorabin mud bath or the Rising Sun Hotel stopped serving VB and Carlton Draught.
I still give a small home ground advantage for the on paper home team but a bigger advantage for a team that does not travel interstate - not so much about the travel but more so about the vocal crowd effect I feel.
No chance of catching up on the bookies this week as we are in complete agreement - as is the Swinburne and FootyForecaster tips. Will have to wait for Footy Maths and MAFL to publicise their tips - they prefer to keep their powder dry until the last minute!
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