Round 3 produced 7 correct tips – in line with the bookies (and seemingly all other tipster sites: Swinburne, Footy Froecaster, Footy Maths and MAFL (well there are a lot of predictions on MAFL!). Total for the year is only 16 (a massive 10 behind the footy tipping.com website leader) but thankfully only one behind the bookies - dissapointingly 2 behind the daughter in the family tipping and she can be counted on to regularly tip the Bulldogs!.
Fremantle’s one extra scoring shot was not enough to defeat the Bombers. Historically the winning team has more scoring shots 71% of the time while 25.6% of the time the team with less scoring shots wins – the other 3.4% where the teams have equal scores are split 1 in 8 equal goals and points.
Ports come from behind win converted a narrow loss prediction to a narrow win (as stated in an earlier post Adelaide’s high proportion of narrow wins was flagged as a potential source of heart ache – I had meant for others and not myself!)
The dominant win by Hawthorn has extrapolated into Premier favouritism by a long margin at the moment with currently Fremantle being the runner up favourite (This will be readdressed in more detail at the round six mark).
Despite a lot of favourites coming home only 3589 people on Footytipping.com.au achieved the perfect burger index.
I am still alive in the streak tipping but my conservative approach sees me on 6 with the leader on 19 – although a lot of the leader board were stopped in their tracks. Hopefully over the next few weeks I can keep my streak active and catch up a bit. This weeks streak tipping is fraught with some danger as I am picking streak teams in all games except Richmond v Collingwood and Gold Coast v Port.
Similarly with the flexi tipping this weeks predictions are heavily biased towards two games: Port over Gold Coast and Richmond over the Pies. It may well be feast or famine this week. But interestingly the normally conservative flexi tipping which has seen reasonable predictions over the long term sees an unusually biased week this week I put this down to the bookies are a bit flustered or rather the market is spreading its cash more widely and therefore some games are popping up as tasty options in my model. Current flexi ranking is 2918: sitting at about the 25% mark.
Onto the tips for this week and despite the large number of non favourite wins so far this year and the occasional thumping all predictions up to the end of round 4 are as per the pre season predictions (there are currently 34 swing predictions with one in rounds 5 and 6 and 2 in round 7: again these will be examined in more detail after round 6). This shows the lag effect I feel.
Only two close games where I need to double check predictions based on team selections/ injuries on Thursday.
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