2018: lower half of the final 8

With Essendon and Hawthorn knocking on the door of the final 8 two teams are particularly under threat: Geelong and the Western Bulldogs.

Geelong are dancing around the danger zone of similar number of shots for and shots against; with the offence trend dipping.  This trend typically sees a team finish with a similar number of wins to losses.  The Cats will be placing a lot of hope on their dream mid field combination to deliver a lot of the ball into the forward line and generate a few more shots on goal to lock in a final position.  I currently have them finishing eighth.

The Bulldogs I have finishing somewhere between 5th and 9th at the moment.  Currently edging out Saint Kilda and Richmond but with Geelong the model could throw a blanket over the four teams.  The Bulldogs more free flowing game style (higher shots for and against) tips them over the line for 5th - but they are fragile with the biggest variations of the four teams in the simulations; they are definitely under threat from the Hawks and Bombers and the games against these teams are crucial for all three and influence the Cats and Saints seasons.

Saint Kilda I am predicting will have a good season - the media will probably have them as the third in the fairy tale trilogy (Dogs 2016, Tigers 2017, Saints 2018?)  I however, am more inclined to think they will make the finals and maybe proceed to the second week of finals.  I think 2018 is more a launching pad for 2019.

The final spot in the 5 to 8 region of the ladder I am assigning to Richmond (battling it out with GWS) 

Despite the solid trends for the Tigers (and a truly impressive 2017 finals campaign) there are a large number of games that the simulations are predicting are very close.  The round two Grand Final replay (in Adelaide) will be a test of fire where I am expecting the Tigers to be the underdog.  The following week against Hawthorn will be a test for both teams.  The mid season run starting with Essendon then Port (in Adelaide), Geelong in Geelong, Sydney and Adelaide at home, GWS away then the Saints and Pies could be glorious or very ugly.  I am predicting bit more of Luna Park rickety Railway ride with the Tigers doing OK but finishing about 5th or 6th. I am confident of a finals appearance for the Tiger army in 2018