2018: 9th to 13th; three locked four going up or down

The five positions just outside the top eight have three teams locked in according to the model: Collingwood, West Coast and Melbourne.

Collingwood in particular are not showing any signs of breaking out of the trend of same number of shots for versus shots against: a long period of mediocrity that surely if it does not end this season with an uptrend then a major coaching change must occur?  Many have been saying this for sometime, so we will wait and see.  Of course an uptrend and a shot at the finals will also fill a lot of newspaper inches.

The West Coast trend is more alarming and clearly predicts missing out on finals.

Melbourne will feature in a number of close games this year.  Winning more than 50% against their model peers will position them close to 8th but the models are not predicting a finals appearance this year.

The  two teams the Carlo Monte model has finishing just outside the 8 are Essendon and Hawthorn.

Essendon are a little harder to predict than the three locked in for somewhere in the 9-13 ladder spots.  The long range model has the Bombers positioned at 9th but with potential to finish 7th or 8th.  Games against Saint Kilda, Western Bulldogs, Geelong, Hawthorn and Collingwood will determine the final position.

Hawthorn are a bit of an enigma going into the 2018 season.  The long term model has them finishing 2018 13th on the ladder.  Yet in the Monte Carlo Simulations they can make the 8 and cause much damage - the Hawks in my opinion have a very sympathetic fixture with no travel to Adelaide Oval in 2018 which as you will see when I predict the seasons for Adelaide and Port Adelaide is a big advantage.  The Hawks also have a very regular Saturday/ Sunday fixture.  The quality of the Hawks defence in the first six rounds will give a better indication.  The round one game against Collingwood is a must win - the model is currently predicting a 9pt win for the Hawks.