Model simulation: top 8 chances of winning the flag

Having run the full 2012, from round 15 and round 18: 2012 and 2013 season many hundreds of times I thought that it was appropriate to examine what chances (my model predicts) a team will have of winning the flag depending on where they finish at the end of the home and away season.  Note there will be differences from season to season as the various home ground advantages come into play depending on how may interstate teams and their relative position.  However, summary: minor premiers are predicted to win the flag 45.5% of the time, second 22.8%, third 16 and fourth 12.2% (top four accounting for 96.5% of premierships).  The second four account for 3.5% of premierships - so far the model has not thrown up an eighth place premier.

Monte Carlo runs		1000	top 4	965
	top 2	683	3rd and 4th	282			5th to 8th	35
	455	228	160	122	21	12	2	0
	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	7th	8th

What do I take away from this?  Gut feel is that this proportion is about right; also should be looking at the bookies odds for premiership at about round 14 and focus on my predicted top 4 and compare the model percentage chances of winning with the bookies odds looking for some opportunities.