Full season monte carlo (no draws) shot predictor model: final ladder predicitons

The Carlo Monty laptop has been running hot crunching numbers with a simplified iterative model predictor to sooth say (or out sooth say as best as possible the Footy Maths Institute!)

Adelaide still persist in coming out on top despite the large number of tight games.  GWS has a bit of a monopoly on the wooden spoon with Western Bulldogs giving them a run for their money.

Top eight certainties at the moment are: Adelaide, Hawthorn, Saints, Swans and Eagles.  Freo and Cats almost certain top 8.

Monte Carlo	Scoring shot basis (no draws)
Full season	100 iterations
Team	Win	2nd	Top 2	Top 8	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18
Adelaide	24%	25%	49%	100%	50%	20%	8%	15%	7%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Brisbane	0%	0%	0%	63%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	6%	15%	42%	20%	11%	5%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Carlton	0%	1%	1%	20%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	3%	7%	10%	28%	25%	17%	7%	2%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Collingwood	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	1%	4%	16%	72%	6%	1%	0%	0%
Essendon	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	1%	8%	59%	32%	0%	0%
Fremantle	2%	2%	4%	91%	0%	0%	1%	4%	6%	16%	42%	22%	8%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Geelong	4%	2%	6%	96%	0%	1%	1%	8%	26%	35%	16%	9%	3%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Gold Coast	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	2%	33%	60%	3%	2%
GWS	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	4%	10%	86%
Hawthorn	24%	23%	47%	100%	13%	32%	25%	22%	7%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Melbourne	0%	0%	0%	6%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	6%	17%	28%	29%	15%	5%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
North Melbourne	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	2%	10%	34%	37%	13%	2%	2%	0%	0%
Port Adelaide	0%	0%	0%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	1%	2%	13%	13%	32%	35%	4%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Richmond	0%	0%	0%	23%	0%	0%	0%	0%	1%	8%	6%	8%	22%	19%	25%	7%	4%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Saint Kilda	21%	21%	42%	100%	24%	21%	30%	16%	6%	2%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Sydney	4%	6%	10%	100%	1%	2%	4%	11%	41%	27%	12%	2%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
West Coast	21%	20%	41%	100%	12%	24%	31%	24%	6%	2%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Western Bulldogs	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	1%	87%	12%

Sydney have a big range of possible end of regular season positions but 5th or 6th is favoured at present.  North and Collingwood will not see September action (really need a big start to the season to overturn the model predicitons).

Too much number crunching for today... Will fire the laptop up again on boxing day or so