End of Year ladder predictions: two methods

The "first past the post" is what is used for the previous blog discussions and is the easiest of the model variations to use.  The Monte Carlo predictions which are based on the scoring shot model is more time consuming and is used in a simple form for the flexi bet option determinations.  The simple Monte Carlo distribution model works on normal score distributions rather than a point and goal distribution model (which I use for the last few weeks of the home and away and occasionally for the finals if I have the time/ determination and can be bothered to let the laptop run for a few hours crunching the numbers).  The win probabilities are added together round by round and give a narrower distribution - the result highlights the number of tight games that Adelaide are predicted to have throughout the year and bumps the Saints to top spot and gives the Hawks a home final during the first week of the finals.