End of Round 6: 2013 Predicitons

The model is predicting Saint Kilda get off to a flyer with 4 big wins and 2 narrow wins in the first six rounds of 2103.  The StKilda v Sydney clash in round 5 will be the highlight and is a swing game for the remainder of the season for both teams.

West Coast have a tougher run but the model is predicting three big wins and three narrow wins.  The most crucial swing game is the round 2 clash against the Hawks.  If the Hawks win this the model predicts the Hawks win the flag (yes yes early days and the model's long range forecasting is affected by a lot of things but...)

The reigning champs are predicted to get half of their seasons big wins over and done with in the first six rounds.  The round three clash against the Roos is far more important for the Roos - if low scoring due to bad weather the Roos could snatch this swing game and set themselves up for a better than predicted season.

The Hawks are currently tipped to have three big wins one narrow win and two narrow losses (interstate visits to West Coast and Adelaide).  As mentioned above the West Coast game is a crucial swing game in the model.  The Adelaide game less so.  With the tough start to the season it is not inconceivable if the Hawks drop two games, but if they manage to drop only one or two followed by a softer mid season fixture it will be watch out for the brown and gold latte set/ army.

Adelaide are the team to watch from a modelling perspective during the first six rounds.  They are currently predicted to have 4 big wins for the whole season and a massive 15 narrow wins (far and away the most predicted narrow wins of any team in 2013).  The effect of previous match wins on the "confidence factor" in the model the first three rounds against Essendon, Brisbane and Port will shape the predicted season for Adelaide.  Adelaides pre season form and injury list will need to be monitored carefully.  Keeping an eye on the bookies odds for these games will also be used to compare to the model - I am expecting that these games will cause the most anguish to tipsters in the early rounds of 2013.

Predicted ladder at the conclusion of round 6, 2013:

Round	Team	Wins	%
6	Saint Kilda	6	123.84
6	West Coast	6	120.30
6	Sydney	5	126.68
6	Adelaide	5	112.98
6	Hawthorn	4	113.48
6	Fremantle	4	105.28
6	Geelong	4	100.50
6	Carlton	3	98.18
6	North Melbourne	3	97.83
6	Port Adelaide	2	97.61
6	Brisbane	2	97.09
6	Richmond	2	96.80
6	Essendon	2	96.51
6	Collingwood	2	96.02
6	Melbourne	2	90.38
6	Gold Coast	1	80.05
6	Western Bulldogs	1	79.10
6	GWS	0	71.98