Cream Team Predictions Rounds 1-6: Hawthorn

Round	Home	Away
1	Hawthorn	Geelong
2	West Coast	Hawthorn
3	Collingwood	Hawthorn
4	Hawthorn	Fremantle
5	Hawthorn	North Melbourne
6	Adelaide	Hawthorn
7	Hawthorn	Sydney
8	Hawthorn	GWS
9	Hawthorn	Gold Coast
10	Melbourne	Hawthorn
11
12	Carlton	Hawthorn
13	Hawthorn	West Coast
14	Hawthorn	Brisbane
15	Geelong	Hawthorn
16	Port Adelaide	Hawthorn
17	Hawthorn	Western Bulldogs
18	Essendon	Hawthorn
19	Hawthorn	Richmond
20	Saint Kilda	Hawthorn
21	Hawthorn	Collingwood
22	North Melbourne	Hawthorn
23	Sydney	Hawthorn

Round	Home	Away	Prediciton	Home	Away
1	Hawthorn	Geelong	Hawthorn	121	97
2	West Coast	Hawthorn	West Coast	117	116
3	Collingwood	Hawthorn	Hawthorn	102	116
4	Hawthorn	Fremantle	Hawthorn	125	93
5	Hawthorn	North Melbourne	Hawthorn	116	91
6	Adelaide	Hawthorn	Adelaide	115	104

The Hawks have a well publicised difficult start to 2013 (challenging may be the better phrase).  The swing game in round two has a dramatic impact for the Hawks for the rest of the season.  If the Hawks win this the model goes on to predict that they will win be a Grand finalist - winning the flag in the model depends on the size of the round two win and gets all too theoretical at this stage but the Hawks would succeed in securing a home ground advantage in the finals.  The round 15 clash against the Cats also swings to Hawthorn - but surprisingly Geelong will pick up this lost game with a win over Brisbane in the last round.

As said in earlier posts the role Adelaide plays in the model is the most sensitive of all of the teams.  The 14 point current margin prediction is quickly erroded with a couple of bigger than expected Hawk wins or an Adelaide narrow loss.  The influence of shot accuracy and number of shots on goal - the scoring shot difference for both teams has been impressive in recent times with the fire power of the Hawks forward line tipping the scale fairly easily in the model options.  Closer to round 6 this game will be critical for Adelaide in the model and may signal a rapid fall from grace with a lot more knock on effects for the Crows than for the Hawks.