2013 streak tipping predcitions

There are a total of 71 current streak footy tipping predicitons.  We will need at least 50 of these to be correctly predicted in a row in order to have a chance at the footy tips streak next year.  Historically very little changes with the streak predictions throughout the year as the model fluctuations need to alter a lot in order to tip the prediction the other way.

11 of the tips are for away teams and 60 for home teams (the home team advantage in the model is evident later in the season and this is where a couple of tips will come into and out of play).  I am toying with the idea of only tipping home teams for the streak tipping but a bit more forensic examination of last years streak tipster winner/ leaders is needed to convince me of this methodology).

Hawthorn and Sint Kilda currently lead the "handing out cans of Whip Ass" title: (although Hawthorn over Geelong in Round 1 is a gutsy call?!)
 

Hawthorn	9
Saint Kilda	9
Sydney	8
West Coast	8
Fremantle	7
Brisbane	6
Geelong	5
Adelaide	4
Carlton	3
Melbourne	3
Essendon	2
North Melbourne	2
Port Adelaide	2
Richmond	2
Collingwood	1
Gold Coast	0
GWS	0
Western Bulldogs	0

Round	Home	Away
1	GWS	Sydney
1	Gold Coast	Saint Kilda
1	Hawthorn	Geelong
2	Sydney	Gold Coast
2	Essendon	Melbourne
2	Port Adelaide	GWS
3	Melbourne	West Coast
3	GWS	Saint Kilda
3	Richmond	Western Bulldogs
4	Sydney	Geelong
4	Hawthorn	Fremantle
4	Saint Kilda	Essendon
4	West Coast	Carlton
4	Melbourne	GWS
4	Adelaide	Western Bulldogs
4	North Melbourne	Brisbane
5	Fremantle	Richmond
5	Western Bulldogs	Geelong
5	Brisbane	Melbourne
5	Hawthorn	North Melbourne
6	Collingwood	Saint Kilda
6	Essendon	GWS
6	Gold Coast	Fremantle
6	Sydney	Brisbane
6	Carlton	Melbourne
6	West Coast	Western Bulldogs
7	Geelong	Essendon
7	Fremantle	Collingwood
7	GWS	Adelaide
7	Melbourne	Gold Coast
7	Saint Kilda	Carlton
8	West Coast	North Melbourne
8	Hawthorn	GWS
9	GWS	West Coast
9	Saint Kilda	Western Bulldogs
9	Brisbane	Carlton
9	Hawthorn	Gold Coast
9	Fremantle	Melbourne
10	Brisbane	Collingwood
10	Carlton	GWS
10	Sydney	Essendon
10	Geelong	Gold Coast
10	West Coast	Richmond
11	GWS	Geelong
13	Saint Kilda	Melbourne
13	Fremantle	North Melbourne
14	West Coast	Essendon
14	Melbourne	Western Bulldogs
14	Hawthorn	Brisbane
14	North Melbourne	GWS
15	Brisbane	Gold Coast
16	Richmond	Gold Coast
16	Sydney	GWS
17	Hawthorn	Western Bulldogs
17	Saint Kilda	Port Adelaide
18	Essendon	Hawthorn
18	Collingwood	GWS
18	Sydney	Richmond
19	West Coast	Gold Coast
20	Geelong	Port Adelaide
20	Carlton	Western Bulldogs
20	Sydney	Collingwood
20	Adelaide	North Melbourne
20	Fremantle	GWS
21	Hawthorn	Collingwood
21	Port Adelaide	Gold Coast
21	Brisbane	GWS
22	Adelaide	Melbourne
22	Fremantle	Port Adelaide
22	Saint Kilda	Gold Coast
22	Brisbane	Western Bulldogs

Cream Team Predictions Rounds 1-6: Hawthorn

Round	Home	Away
1	Hawthorn	Geelong
2	West Coast	Hawthorn
3	Collingwood	Hawthorn
4	Hawthorn	Fremantle
5	Hawthorn	North Melbourne
6	Adelaide	Hawthorn
7	Hawthorn	Sydney
8	Hawthorn	GWS
9	Hawthorn	Gold Coast
10	Melbourne	Hawthorn
11
12	Carlton	Hawthorn
13	Hawthorn	West Coast
14	Hawthorn	Brisbane
15	Geelong	Hawthorn
16	Port Adelaide	Hawthorn
17	Hawthorn	Western Bulldogs
18	Essendon	Hawthorn
19	Hawthorn	Richmond
20	Saint Kilda	Hawthorn
21	Hawthorn	Collingwood
22	North Melbourne	Hawthorn
23	Sydney	Hawthorn

Round	Home	Away	Prediciton	Home	Away
1	Hawthorn	Geelong	Hawthorn	121	97
2	West Coast	Hawthorn	West Coast	117	116
3	Collingwood	Hawthorn	Hawthorn	102	116
4	Hawthorn	Fremantle	Hawthorn	125	93
5	Hawthorn	North Melbourne	Hawthorn	116	91
6	Adelaide	Hawthorn	Adelaide	115	104

The Hawks have a well publicised difficult start to 2013 (challenging may be the better phrase).  The swing game in round two has a dramatic impact for the Hawks for the rest of the season.  If the Hawks win this the model goes on to predict that they will win be a Grand finalist - winning the flag in the model depends on the size of the round two win and gets all too theoretical at this stage but the Hawks would succeed in securing a home ground advantage in the finals.  The round 15 clash against the Cats also swings to Hawthorn - but surprisingly Geelong will pick up this lost game with a win over Brisbane in the last round.

As said in earlier posts the role Adelaide plays in the model is the most sensitive of all of the teams.  The 14 point current margin prediction is quickly erroded with a couple of bigger than expected Hawk wins or an Adelaide narrow loss.  The influence of shot accuracy and number of shots on goal - the scoring shot difference for both teams has been impressive in recent times with the fire power of the Hawks forward line tipping the scale fairly easily in the model options.  Closer to round 6 this game will be critical for Adelaide in the model and may signal a rapid fall from grace with a lot more knock on effects for the Crows than for the Hawks.