GWS: I do not think it will surprise many that the model predicts that GWS will most probably end up with the wooden spoon. What is a bit surprising is how poorly Essendon perform - the round 17 clash in their "purple" patch of reasonable form. So we will have to wait and see.
| Round | Home | Away | Prediciton |
| 1 | GWS | Sydney | Sydney |
| 2 | Port Adelaide | GWS | Port Adelaide |
| 3 | GWS | Saint Kilda | Saint Kilda |
| 4 | Melbourne | GWS | Melbourne |
| 5 | GWS | Gold Coast | Gold Coast |
| 6 | Essendon | GWS | Essendon |
| 7 | GWS | Adelaide | Adelaide |
| 8 | Hawthorn | GWS | Hawthorn |
| 9 | GWS | West Coast | West Coast |
| 10 | Carlton | GWS | Carlton |
| 11 | GWS | Geelong | Geelong |
| 12 | GWS | Port Adelaide | Port Adelaide |
| 13 | | | |
| 14 | North Melbourne | GWS | North Melbourne |
| 15 | GWS | Western Bulldogs | GWS |
| 16 | Sydney | GWS | Sydney |
| 17 | GWS | Essendon | GWS |
| 18 | Collingwood | GWS | Collingwood |
| 19 | GWS | Melbourne | Melbourne |
| 20 | Fremantle | GWS | Fremantle |
| 21 | Brisbane | GWS | Brisbane |
| 22 | GWS | Richmond | Richmond |
| 23 | Gold Coast | GWS | Gold Coast |
|
|
|
|
Gold Coast are tipped to do a bit better than GWS with four wins (GWS, Bulldogs, Collingwood and GWS).
The Bulldogs are predicted to have a horror year which given their poor performance at the end of last year is not surprising as this form carries over into the model for this year. Perhaps the bulldogs should recruit/ draft Fev - they do need a full forward and even though Fev probably would be carrying a bit too much weight and lacking in form he would draw some crowd and let us face it if the Bulldogs can not get close to the finals and suffer some of the predicted losses I see coming at least they could help their financial position by having a drawcard?
Essendon and Collingwood are bit more of a surprise for the cellar in the model. Essendon had poor end of season form similar to the Bulldogs so perhaps Essendon in the bottom third is not too surprising - they will need to win the games against Bulldogs and GWS to have a chance of getting into the middle third. They will also need to work hard to limit the damage to the model predictions with the 5 earmarked thrashings at the hands of the Saints, Geelong, Sydney, West Coast and Hawks (all seemingly a formality at this stage).
Collingwood could be the surprise packet from the modelling perspective (along with Adelaide as mentioned before). Ten narrow losses and six narrow wins really determine the role the Pies will play in 2013. The early part of the season impacts on the narrow losses/ wins a great deal. Run through a range of limited simulations for the first six rounds it is really a toss of the coin which way the Pies go (one horror (to Pies fans: joy to everybody else) is the possibility of 12 losses in a row - that has come up a few times in the simplified Monte Carlo season run: more to come over Christmas when I can run the laptop overnight with the model).
North round out the cellar dwellers and again how the narrow win loss games pan out determine their season. I would strongly suggest kicking for goal accuracy training over summer for both the Pies and Roos (more so Pies as 12 losses in a row is enticing - I would love to see the front page of the Collingwood Fan Newsletter: sorry Herald Sun mid year going into Round 15 against Carlton "Bucks Blue Day: Malthouse flying high?"
The "first past the post" is what is used for the previous blog discussions and is the easiest of the model variations to use. The Monte Carlo predictions which are based on the scoring shot model is more time consuming and is used in a simple form for the flexi bet option determinations. The simple Monte Carlo distribution model works on normal score distributions rather than a point and goal distribution model (which I use for the last few weeks of the home and away and occasionally for the finals if I have the time/ determination and can be bothered to let the laptop run for a few hours crunching the numbers). The win probabilities are added together round by round and give a narrower distribution - the result highlights the number of tight games that Adelaide are predicted to have throughout the year and bumps the Saints to top spot and gives the Hawks a home final during the first week of the finals.
At the bgining of the year the model is predicting that rounds 10, 4, 9, 6 and 14 are the easiest to predict the most winners. Rounds 15, 23, 12, 17 and 11 (two of these in the bye rounds) are the hardest. Of course the long range predictions are harder to call at the start of the season and the relative rankings will shuffle around a bit throughout the year. Although rounds 3, 8 and 10 are looking good to play the joker in any work tipping competition or to try and win the Whopper burgers in the on line tipping (goal this year is to win more than 3 burgers with hopefully 5 perfect rounds?)
There are a total of 71 current streak footy tipping predicitons. We will need at least 50 of these to be correctly predicted in a row in order to have a chance at the footy tips streak next year. Historically very little changes with the streak predictions throughout the year as the model fluctuations need to alter a lot in order to tip the prediction the other way.
11 of the tips are for away teams and 60 for home teams (the home team advantage in the model is evident later in the season and this is where a couple of tips will come into and out of play). I am toying with the idea of only tipping home teams for the streak tipping but a bit more forensic examination of last years streak tipster winner/ leaders is needed to convince me of this methodology).
Hawthorn and Sint Kilda currently lead the "handing out cans of Whip Ass" title: (although Hawthorn over Geelong in Round 1 is a gutsy call?!)
| Hawthorn |
9 |
| Saint Kilda |
9 |
| Sydney |
8 |
| West Coast |
8 |
| Fremantle |
7 |
| Brisbane |
6 |
| Geelong |
5 |
| Adelaide |
4 |
| Carlton |
3 |
| Melbourne |
3 |
| Essendon |
2 |
| North
Melbourne |
2 |
| Port Adelaide |
2 |
| Richmond |
2 |
| Collingwood |
1 |
| Gold Coast |
0 |
| GWS |
0 |
| Western
Bulldogs |
0 |
| Round |
Home |
Away |
| 1 |
GWS |
Sydney |
| 1 |
Gold Coast |
Saint
Kilda |
| 1 |
Hawthorn |
Geelong |
| 2 |
Sydney |
Gold Coast |
| 2 |
Essendon |
Melbourne |
| 2 |
Port
Adelaide |
GWS |
| 3 |
Melbourne |
West
Coast |
| 3 |
GWS |
Saint
Kilda |
| 3 |
Richmond |
Western Bulldogs |
| 4 |
Sydney |
Geelong |
| 4 |
Hawthorn |
Fremantle |
| 4 |
Saint
Kilda |
Essendon |
| 4 |
West
Coast |
Carlton |
| 4 |
Melbourne |
GWS |
| 4 |
Adelaide |
Western Bulldogs |
| 4 |
North
Melbourne |
Brisbane |
| 5 |
Fremantle |
Richmond |
| 5 |
Western Bulldogs |
Geelong |
| 5 |
Brisbane |
Melbourne |
| 5 |
Hawthorn |
North Melbourne |
| 6 |
Collingwood |
Saint
Kilda |
| 6 |
Essendon |
GWS |
| 6 |
Gold Coast |
Fremantle |
| 6 |
Sydney |
Brisbane |
| 6 |
Carlton |
Melbourne |
| 6 |
West
Coast |
Western Bulldogs |
| 7 |
Geelong |
Essendon |
| 7 |
Fremantle |
Collingwood |
| 7 |
GWS |
Adelaide |
| 7 |
Melbourne |
Gold Coast |
| 7 |
Saint
Kilda |
Carlton |
| 8 |
West
Coast |
North Melbourne |
| 8 |
Hawthorn |
GWS |
| 9 |
GWS |
West
Coast |
| 9 |
Saint
Kilda |
Western Bulldogs |
| 9 |
Brisbane |
Carlton |
| 9 |
Hawthorn |
Gold Coast |
| 9 |
Fremantle |
Melbourne |
| 10 |
Brisbane |
Collingwood |
| 10 |
Carlton |
GWS |
| 10 |
Sydney |
Essendon |
| 10 |
Geelong |
Gold Coast |
| 10 |
West
Coast |
Richmond |
| 11 |
GWS |
Geelong |
| 13 |
Saint
Kilda |
Melbourne |
| 13 |
Fremantle |
North Melbourne |
| 14 |
West
Coast |
Essendon |
| 14 |
Melbourne |
Western Bulldogs |
| 14 |
Hawthorn |
Brisbane |
| 14 |
North
Melbourne |
GWS |
| 15 |
Brisbane |
Gold Coast |
| 16 |
Richmond |
Gold Coast |
| 16 |
Sydney |
GWS |
| 17 |
Hawthorn |
Western Bulldogs |
| 17 |
Saint
Kilda |
Port Adelaide |
| 18 |
Essendon |
Hawthorn |
| 18 |
Collingwood |
GWS |
| 18 |
Sydney |
Richmond |
| 19 |
West
Coast |
Gold Coast |
| 20 |
Geelong |
Port Adelaide |
| 20 |
Carlton |
Western Bulldogs |
| 20 |
Sydney |
Collingwood |
| 20 |
Adelaide |
North Melbourne |
| 20 |
Fremantle |
GWS |
| 21 |
Hawthorn |
Collingwood |
| 21 |
Port
Adelaide |
Gold Coast |
| 21 |
Brisbane |
GWS |
| 22 |
Adelaide |
Melbourne |
| 22 |
Fremantle |
Port Adelaide |
| 22 |
Saint
Kilda |
Gold Coast |
| 22 |
Brisbane |
Western Bulldogs |
