Round Three - a lot of close games including the opening feature game

The Carlo Monty Model is predicting a 1 point win for the Cats over the Crows (although if I rounded off the model predicts a draw - a rarity in the football tipping community) in Adelaide - a rare away win (I hope) for matches between these two.  I was tempted to have the Brisbane v Port game as the feature as I think this will be a close and entertaining game wit ha narrow victory to the home team.

Giants v Tigers was possibly another consideration but I think the fragility of the Tigers could be exposed - currently going for a small victory for Giants but the model would not be surprised with a 6 goal runaway in final quarter drubbing.

Freo Saints game was not considered for feature status despite a close finish predicted - quality of play has not been great - could easily be an away win for the Saints.

Collingwood versus Eagles could also be a good game to watch but not enticing enough for flexi tip and not a runaway win prediction suitable for a streak tip.

Melbourne Essendon game will not be pretty to watch - model is still backing the Dees who have not been good.  Note have predicted a streak tip for the Dees (I am nervous about this tip)

Bulldogs predicted to keep their fans happy with a percentage boosting home win.

Feature game

Model has only had a 50 50 success in recent times although a respectable MAE of 23.5.  Home teams have been favoured with wins.  Cats have averaged more scoring shots but Crows have been more accurate - current prediction is 86 each with a fraction over for Cats:

If it is a draw I predicted it.
If Cats win - I told you so: Finals bound; Oh Dear Crows season over
If Crows win - they have bounced back; Cats stumble

Results
How good are the Cats (better than the Crows; but Crows had their chances and enough shots on goal - honorable loss but not far from being gone?)

Melbourne on the other hand - how bad is bad?  One good quarter against a not too highly rated team and then three quarters of stuff all.

Carlton offering signs of hope for the future; Swans looking at somewhere between 7 and 14th.

GWS and Brisbane rolling on - Brisbane impressing lets see how the next four weeks go.

West Coast, Bulldogs and Hawks up and down a bit.

Freo and Saints gave us a close game - Saints accuracy hurting again like 2018 despite early 2019 being reasonable.