Round Two - mainly home teams & Hawks v Doggies feature

This weeks tips have four games with margins under two goals and a maximum of six goals which should make for exciting viewing.  Hopefully, North and the Bombers put in better performances than last week - more so as the model is actually tipping both which could be very embarrassing.

Due to the predicted close nature of most games the model is only picking one game to be added to the streak tipping (streak tips are a long game: target for the year is to have a couple of tips each week - I want to get a streak over 20 this year).  Port  over Carlton is the sole streak tip this week.

Flexi tipping is more interesting this week with the 50% game tipping the Crows over Sydney - in Sydney.  A difficult one to convince me that the model will be correct as the Crows forward lien was demolished last week and Sydney have a good defense.  however, the Swans did not exactly impress either.  Whichever team loses (and particularly if they lose big) will receive a lot of media coverage in their home towns on Sunday/ Monday.

Richmond over Pies - odds are nicely even and I feel favor Richmond.  And North over Brisbane for the other - surely North have to bounce back at Docklands?

The all important tips:

Feature Game: Hawks v Doggies

Historically this is one game I go to with a close friend and my daughter (both mad Doggies supporters) and apart from seeing Bob Murphy go down a couple of years ago or when Buddy kicked about 1 goal 15 pts the games have been very enjoyable - with a mix of wins and loses.

Both teams go into this game with good wins the week before.  The model has had an excellent recent form on the big grounds (and a not so flash prediction hit rate on the indoor venue).  The Hawks have been favorite in 9 of the last 10 encounters and have averaged about 4 more scoring shots - scoring just over 100pts on average to the Doggies just under 80

The Bulldogs shot trend suggests that the Hawks will prevail but the style of play of both teams should be/ will be showcased on the large open spaces of the MCG

Results

Well, another week with a 4, a just over flexi and one more to the active streak (albeit an active cautious streak of 2).  A round MAE of 36.7

Richmond seriously under performing and opened up a bit by the Pies.

Adelaide doing what I had expected from the model - providing the overall slight profit on flexi tips.

Essendon under performing again.

Carlton putting up a decent fight and showing some hope for their supporters.

Geelong  annihilating the Dees who have really dropped the bundle this year - based on the first two rounds the end of year projections have them missing the eight.

West Coast bounced back positively.

North dropped the bundle and things are looking grim for the rest of the year.

Hawks lost to the better team on the day and the Doggies are impressing me and my model moving into the projected finals quite highly at the moment.

Freo/ Gold Coast - lost the flip of the coin on this one : (

Next weeks feature game:  has to be Crows v Cats which I am tipping Cats by 1 with a big flexi tip to boot.