Rather than placing a massive amount of faith in my end of season monte carlo modelling predictions for the top eight (I leave that to many others on the web) I am placing some more emphasis on the next six rounds.
Historically I have found that my modelling is fairly stable for four to six rounds into the future – it takes some massive unexpected results (ten goal differences to predicted typically) to alter a lot of the predictions. What does have an impact though is when the swing games (plus or minus three goals) fall in favour of my models underdogs. A couple of these in a row to a team gives a boost to the recent form factors and can change quite a number of predictions in the three to six week time frame.
Historically I have found that my modelling is fairly stable for four to six rounds into the future – it takes some massive unexpected results (ten goal differences to predicted typically) to alter a lot of the predictions. What does have an impact though is when the swing games (plus or minus three goals) fall in favour of my models underdogs. A couple of these in a row to a team gives a boost to the recent form factors and can change quite a number of predictions in the three to six week time frame.
The first six rounds this year have 32 swing games:
Home Away Ground Margin Pred (winner)
The Bulldogs appear in swing games in all six rounds: predicted to be 3-3.
Gold coast feature five times at 4-1.
Six teams feature four times each: St Kilda (2-2), Fremantle (2-2), the Tigers (3-1), Brisbane (2-2), Sydney (3-1) and Roos (3-1).
How these eight teams perform in the early part of the 2014 season will play a significant role on the make up of the final eight. Particularly the nine games between these teams. How the Bulldogs perform in their first four encounters are crucial for the scraggers supporters to have some hope in 2014 – on paper it is a big ask with an away win in Perth followed by games against the Roos who on paper should win and similarly the Tigers then an away game against the GWS.As the Doggies are my second team I do have a soft spot for them and do hope that they are the team to surprise the majority of expert tippers. If they can go into round seven at 5-1 with a percentage of 105 or so they will be getting a lot of media attention as well as shortening odds for a spot in the eight.
The Bulldogs are trending upwards for their offense and have been fairly steady with a leaky defence. What I will be looking for with the doggies are signs of a tighter midfield which can lead to less pressure on the defence and a few more attacking shots on goal. If the average shots on goal from their opposition can drop by three to five per game and stringing six rounds of this effort together then the structure of the for and against chart above would be putting the doggies into final eight contention. There is however a lot for them to do and I currently rank them 13th for the end of the year.
No comments:
Post a Comment