2018: Bottom five predictions

Both the Carlo Monty long term model and the short term (week to week) model has come up with the same five teams to finish up in the bottom five spots of the 2018 AFL ladder.  The wooden spoon will really come down to which of Brisbane, Gold Coast, Fremantle and Carlton does the best against the other three.  North Melbourne are in the mix but would need a horror year to get the spoon; they will be more pushing for 9th to 13th but both my models have them sitting at 14.


Gold Coast give up a home ground game to Fremantle (and play two weeks in a row in Perth).  Brisbane play Fremantle and Carlton once each potentially at a bit of a disadvantage.


Looking at the shots for and shots against trends for the four teams: All have similar trends with shots for averaging about 20 and shots against averaging 25.  Brisbane are performing better with both the trends and the shots for.  Brisbane is the model favorite for the wooden spoon but Gold Coast is a possibility with our analysis of the draw.  All five teams will be hoping/ aiming for a breakout from these trends either with a focus on tighter defence or a more aggressive attack: both I think is beyond their reach at the moment.

All home teams this week

Last week was a flip of the coin with two correct tips but at least the longest odds choice of the four picks got up.  The streak came to a halt and has started again (currently on 1); the flexi tip managed a 3 cent profit ($3.47 cumulative to date) and the MAE for the round was 24 (average now 18.5).

Home	Away	Streak	Flexi
GW Sydney	Fremantle	0	50
Brisbane	Collingwood	1	0
Western Bulldogs	Melbourne	1	30
Adelaide	Carlton	1	20

AFL W Round 2 tips

Utilizing the super computer strength of the Carlo Monty AFL model the silicon and electrons have been corraled in such a way as to come up with the following round two predictions:

 
Comfortable wins for the Bulldogs and Blues.  Close games for the others - have chosen favorites in three games with Melbourne the underdog (although Pies are not strong favorites)

 
Flexi column is for weighting tips on footytips.com.au flexi (but for some reason that is not offered for AFLW).  The streak tipping is.

Current form: Round 1: 3/4 tips, streak currently active at 3 and MAE: 14.75 (flexi would be at 244 points)

2017: Round 1 early predictions

The countdown to round 1 is officially underway at the Carlo Monte Household - club memberships have arrived (handy Christmas pressies) and relaxation time has been spent over the enforced work holiday period pouring over the xls sheets.  The model has thrown up some interesting predictions for the round one encounters:

Notably some rain on the Bulldogs parade with a predicted Pies narrow win.

A reinvigorated Bombers coming close to the re-jigged Hawks (hopefully with Roughy).

Close games and hopefully crowd pleasers with Crows v GWS; Saints and Demons. (Lately the model has been very supportive (too supportive) of the Crows

A  boost for Blues fans (the model is predicting a healthy first six games for the blues at present).

A thumping win for Geelong - but let's hope there are better signs of life for Freo this year.

Ground	Home	Away	Prediction
MCG	Carlton	Richmond	30
MCG	Collingwood	Western Bulldogs	4
Etihad Stadium	St Kilda	Melbourne	14
SCG	Sydney	Port Adelaide	33
Metricon Stadium	Gold Coast	Brisbane	29
MCG	Essendon	Hawthorn	-2
Etihad Stadium	North Melbourne	West Coast	-14
Adelaide Oval	Adelaide	GW Sydney	11
Domain Stadium	Fremantle	Geelong	-49

What does 2017 hold in store...?

Carlo Monte model predictions for the end of 2017 home and away season (as per previous years methodology) is outlined below:

Team	Shot factor pred eoy	Last 10 game %
Geelong	6.61	149.78
Adelaide	6.29	136.08
GW Sydney	4.93	152.20
Sydney	4.39	157.68
West Coast	3.54	113.92
Hawthorn	3.06	102.36
Western Bulldogs	2.66	113.58
Collingwood	0.14	106.32
North Melbourne	-0.02	80.36
Port Adelaide	-0.02	98.41
St Kilda	-0.81	110.56
Melbourne	-1.01	87.03
Richmond	-2.68	64.60
Carlton	-2.69	114.88
Essendon	-3.44	112.82
Fremantle	-4.44	56.42
Gold Coast	-6.11	96.09
Brisbane	-7.84	63.67