Cream Team Predictions Rounds 1-6: Hawthorn

Round	Home	Away
1	Hawthorn	Geelong
2	West Coast	Hawthorn
3	Collingwood	Hawthorn
4	Hawthorn	Fremantle
5	Hawthorn	North Melbourne
6	Adelaide	Hawthorn
7	Hawthorn	Sydney
8	Hawthorn	GWS
9	Hawthorn	Gold Coast
10	Melbourne	Hawthorn
11
12	Carlton	Hawthorn
13	Hawthorn	West Coast
14	Hawthorn	Brisbane
15	Geelong	Hawthorn
16	Port Adelaide	Hawthorn
17	Hawthorn	Western Bulldogs
18	Essendon	Hawthorn
19	Hawthorn	Richmond
20	Saint Kilda	Hawthorn
21	Hawthorn	Collingwood
22	North Melbourne	Hawthorn
23	Sydney	Hawthorn

Round	Home	Away	Prediciton	Home	Away
1	Hawthorn	Geelong	Hawthorn	121	97
2	West Coast	Hawthorn	West Coast	117	116
3	Collingwood	Hawthorn	Hawthorn	102	116
4	Hawthorn	Fremantle	Hawthorn	125	93
5	Hawthorn	North Melbourne	Hawthorn	116	91
6	Adelaide	Hawthorn	Adelaide	115	104

The Hawks have a well publicised difficult start to 2013 (challenging may be the better phrase).  The swing game in round two has a dramatic impact for the Hawks for the rest of the season.  If the Hawks win this the model goes on to predict that they will win be a Grand finalist - winning the flag in the model depends on the size of the round two win and gets all too theoretical at this stage but the Hawks would succeed in securing a home ground advantage in the finals.  The round 15 clash against the Cats also swings to Hawthorn - but surprisingly Geelong will pick up this lost game with a win over Brisbane in the last round.

As said in earlier posts the role Adelaide plays in the model is the most sensitive of all of the teams.  The 14 point current margin prediction is quickly erroded with a couple of bigger than expected Hawk wins or an Adelaide narrow loss.  The influence of shot accuracy and number of shots on goal - the scoring shot difference for both teams has been impressive in recent times with the fire power of the Hawks forward line tipping the scale fairly easily in the model options.  Closer to round 6 this game will be critical for Adelaide in the model and may signal a rapid fall from grace with a lot more knock on effects for the Crows than for the Hawks.

Cream Team Predictions: Rounds 1 -6: Sydney

Round	Home	Away
1	GWS	Sydney
2	Sydney	Gold Coast
3	North Melbourne	Sydney
4	Sydney	Geelong
5	Saint Kilda	Sydney
6	Sydney	Brisbane
7	Hawthorn	Sydney
8	Sydney	Fremantle
9	Collingwood	Sydney
10	Sydney	Essendon
11	Adelaide	Sydney
12
13	Port Adelaide	Sydney
14	Sydney	Carlton
15	Melbourne	Sydney
16	Sydney	GWS
17	West Coast	Sydney
18	Sydney	Richmond
19	Western Bulldogs	Sydney
20	Sydney	Collingwood
21	Sydney	Saint Kilda
22	Geelong	Sydney
23	Sydney	Hawthorn

Predictions:(subject to review prior to the actual start of round 1)

Round	Home	Away	Prediciton	Home	Away
1	GWS	Sydney	Sydney	68	117
2	Sydney	Gold Coast	Sydney	128	70
3	North Melbourne	Sydney	Sydney	101	114
4	Sydney	Geelong	Sydney	121	100
5	Saint Kilda	Sydney	Saint Kilda	115	102
6	Sydney	Brisbane	Sydney	118	99

The reigning premiers should start with two comfortable wins followed by three tougher games that they should realistically expect to win at least two of.  The round five clash with Saint Kilda is currently tipped to be a comfortable win for the Saints and it is difficult to see the model trimming this large predicted win to favour the Swans - massive blow outs in the first two games can do it coupled with narrow victories for the Saints.  The form of the Saints will be eagerly watched as this game I feel may be one of the predictions on the day that are different to the bookies odds and the general tipster opinion.  Should also be interesting to see what the Swinburne model predicts for this game.

End of Round 6: 2013 Predicitons

The model is predicting Saint Kilda get off to a flyer with 4 big wins and 2 narrow wins in the first six rounds of 2103.  The StKilda v Sydney clash in round 5 will be the highlight and is a swing game for the remainder of the season for both teams.

West Coast have a tougher run but the model is predicting three big wins and three narrow wins.  The most crucial swing game is the round 2 clash against the Hawks.  If the Hawks win this the model predicts the Hawks win the flag (yes yes early days and the model's long range forecasting is affected by a lot of things but...)

The reigning champs are predicted to get half of their seasons big wins over and done with in the first six rounds.  The round three clash against the Roos is far more important for the Roos - if low scoring due to bad weather the Roos could snatch this swing game and set themselves up for a better than predicted season.

The Hawks are currently tipped to have three big wins one narrow win and two narrow losses (interstate visits to West Coast and Adelaide).  As mentioned above the West Coast game is a crucial swing game in the model.  The Adelaide game less so.  With the tough start to the season it is not inconceivable if the Hawks drop two games, but if they manage to drop only one or two followed by a softer mid season fixture it will be watch out for the brown and gold latte set/ army.

Adelaide are the team to watch from a modelling perspective during the first six rounds.  They are currently predicted to have 4 big wins for the whole season and a massive 15 narrow wins (far and away the most predicted narrow wins of any team in 2013).  The effect of previous match wins on the "confidence factor" in the model the first three rounds against Essendon, Brisbane and Port will shape the predicted season for Adelaide.  Adelaides pre season form and injury list will need to be monitored carefully.  Keeping an eye on the bookies odds for these games will also be used to compare to the model - I am expecting that these games will cause the most anguish to tipsters in the early rounds of 2013.

Predicted ladder at the conclusion of round 6, 2013:

Round	Team	Wins	%
6	Saint Kilda	6	123.84
6	West Coast	6	120.30
6	Sydney	5	126.68
6	Adelaide	5	112.98
6	Hawthorn	4	113.48
6	Fremantle	4	105.28
6	Geelong	4	100.50
6	Carlton	3	98.18
6	North Melbourne	3	97.83
6	Port Adelaide	2	97.61
6	Brisbane	2	97.09
6	Richmond	2	96.80
6	Essendon	2	96.51
6	Collingwood	2	96.02
6	Melbourne	2	90.38
6	Gold Coast	1	80.05
6	Western Bulldogs	1	79.10
6	GWS	0	71.98

Early model predictions for 2013

The V8 model has thrown up a few unexpected surprises for the make up of the ladder for the end of the year.  But before revealing the Cream Teams, Battlers and Cellar Dwellers the following points of note regarding the model need to be emphasised:
* predictions more than six weeks out need to be taken with a grain of salt as the "confidence factor" does swing a number of games particularly for the middle 6 teams.  The model has been reasonably accurate 10 to 6 weeks out from the finals in determining the make up of the final 4.
* Week to week injuries play an important role in the model particularly for the close loss/ close win swing games.
* Some tweaking of the "sold" games is underway - for instance Launceston has a home ground advantage for Hawthorn and it is debatable whether Richmond have played enough games in Darwin to consider it a home ground advantage.

With these points in mind the model currently predicts the top six (the Cream teams) to be:
Adelaide, Saint Kilda, West Coast, Hawthorn, Sydney and Geelong.

The battlers fighting for spot seven and eight are:
Fremantle, Brisbane, Melbourne, Carlton, Richmond and Port Adelaide.

Cellar dwellers to be:
North Melbourne, Collingwood, Essendon, Gold Coast, Greater Western Sydney and Western Bulldogs.

Initial surprises/ bold predictions:
Bulldogs for wooden spoon- depending on percentage; currently second bottom with GWS to get the wooden spoon
Adelaide v Saint Kilda Grand Final (still struggle to see how this could be: home ground advantages in the finals clinch this in the model at present; a couple of swing games going the other way and Hawks swamp the final ; more on this in a later post).
Collingwoods fall from grace (conceivable but there are a lot of close losses predicted in the model)
Melbournes dramatic rise - to finish 9th
Not sure if North being in the bottom six is a surprise or not.

The first six weeks will be analysed in depth in the next post.  Following that each teams season given the once over from the models perspective.