Bombers v Hawks a potential window into both clubs game play for 2024 and a rare model disagreement and official tip change!

The bookies have this as a close game with odds about $1.90: $2.00.  The Carlo Monty model initially agrees and currently has Essendon as slight favourites predicted to win by 3 to 4 points (3.5).  We must go back to 2018 when the teams were similarly well matched.

However, the two main internal models used by the Carlo Monty supercomputer has thrown up the one in twenty differences of opinion flagging this game as a “hidden blockbuster”: a game where the stars align to produce a hopefully close game warranting in depth analysis of the game play.  Given it is also the first home and away game of the year for both teams it may be hyperbolic or seer like in the conclusions that could be drawn from one team convincingly winning over the other.

Given that both teams are in the “also-ran” grouping of teams not anticipated to worry the finals in 2024 the prediction of a “hidden blockbuster” could fall flat on its face and be a dreary example of two sub-par teams slugging it out for the four points.

Recent experience (last ten games) is a coin toss with the model having correctly predicted the winner 5 times, with a not very flash margin of error of 30 points.  The last prediction was incorrect in tipping the Hawks: an 11-goal thumping occurred.

Last Ten games

 

Reviewing the trends in more detail the Carlo Monty Institute is tipping Hawthorn by 7 (2 to10) points and allocating (at this stage) 30 flexi tip points.  The reasoning behind overruling the regression model in favour of the pure shot-based model is the consistent advantage Hawthorn have over Essendon with respect to the weighted shots for/ against and the weighted points for and against per shot on goal:

Team	Shots for	Shots Against	Points per shot for	Points per shot against
Essendon	19.36	23.93	3.32	4.37
Hawthorn	20.08	22.40	3.76	3.99

A large part of these statistics is based on the previous five games and based on 2023 ladder positions Hawthorn played higher quality teams in the last five games of 2023.

Additionally, any home ground advantage Essendon could be assigned is minimal (In 2023: both teams played on the MCG 14 times): Essendon as home ground will have a few more supporters than if they were the away team.

Post game analysis of score frequency and accuracy will hopefully highlight a promising year for one team.  A big win by either team warrants a closer examination of what has changed from last year and any implications for the following few rounds - a slightly tougher run of games for the Hawks although the next two played in Melbourne and then play Collingwood in Adelaide (which should be beneficial to the Hawks).  While Essendon have one interstate trip to Sydney then go to Adelaide for the gather round against Port (HAW: MEL, GEE, COL and ESS: SYD, STK, POR)