Round One: Feature game

This is a bit of work in progress - produced early as I am trying to automate the uploading of text and graphics: doing this as a bit of practice over the Christmas work enforced holiday period

The WayBeyondRedemption site is aiming to focus on the first game of each round in detail in the 2018 season.  This is linked to the work and family tipping competitions using the footytips.com.au site as the arbitrator of family and social tipping where competitors on equal tipping points are separated via the margin tipping – which is carried out on the first game of each round.  Hence, extra attention is devoted to the feature game.

Tigers to outclass the Blues

The first feature game for 2018 is the now “traditional” first round clash and season opener Richmond v Carlton.  The two teams have met in the first round every year since 2012 (the opening game each year since 2014).  Richmond have won every encounter since 2014 and the model is confident that this will continue in 2018.  This tip must be tempered with the knowledge that the model has been wrong four times during the last ten encounters – three of those Carlton upset wins.  The 2018 prediction currently sits at a hefty 63 point thrashing of the Blues at the hands of the reigning premier.  This level of prediction has historically produced a correct tip 95% of the time – the only recent (since 2000) upsets have been a memorable Bulldogs victory over the 2000 Bombers in the last round and the Bombers 6 point loss to the Demons in a low scoring affair in 2012.

Currently Richmond are clearly the bookies favorite going into the game – rightly so for a reigning premier.  Richmond have been the clear favorite in the previous four encounters and are well worth considering  in the footytips.com.au flexi tipping if you take a very conservative approach.  The Carlo Monty model will be spreading the flexi tips across three other games at this stage (currently spreading the 100 points across three games: Hawks, Roos and Crows).

The shot model employed by the WayBeyondRedemption site is anticipating a heavy scoring of up to 40 scoring shots for Richmond and as low as 16 shots for the Blues (assuming good ground and weather conditions at the MCG).  The previous five encounters has seen Richmond score an average of 27 scoring shots to Carltons 21.  Richmond have averaged 100 points to Carltons 75 during the same period.  The prediction for round one 2018 is for a 63 point victory for the Tigers.

The last ten games for Richmond have been very good – a drought breaking Premiership with other excellent finals games and a recent percentage of over 160%.  A narrow loss to Geelong in Geelong the only recent blemish.  The Carlo Monty model correctly tipped seven of the Tigers last ten games – getting the two Geelong encounters and the GWS tips wrong.

Similarly with Carltons last ten games the model correctly tipped seven but was more accurate with the margins with an average error of just over 21 points (being under 30 is the benchmark).  During the last five and ten games Richmond have clearly been (on average) favorite and Carlton very clearly underdog.  Interestingly Richmond have averaged 26 shots for and 20 against while Carlton have averaged 25 for and 23 against.  The healthy shots for for Carlton give a little bit of false hope for the supporters as the quality of opposition was noticeably different.

For home teams with odds of $1.25 to $1.35 since 2000 (some of the earlier odds were estimated) the model has an 80% success rate of tipping winners: 87 of 108 tips.  Only one of the incorrect tips had an error of greater than 63 points – adding some confidence to the Richmond tip of 63 points.

Closer to the actual game day I will update the margin predictions from the major newspapers (The Age and The Herald Sun).

Both The Age and Herald Sun tipsters have overwhelmingly backed Richmond (Chris Judd being the loyal exception).  The Carlo Monty tip comes in as the second largest.  Computer tippers are slow to upload their tips prior to the first Thursday game - shall update later today.

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Well: Ric 17 19: 121 d Car 15 5: 95
36 scoring shots to 20: Tigers under perform to my model by 4 shots, Blues over perform by 4 plus the added benefit of a high accuracy.  I'll take the correct tip (along with the other 90 odd% of tippers) and lament the 37 pts adrift with the margin tip