2017: Round 1 early predictions

The countdown to round 1 is officially underway at the Carlo Monte Household - club memberships have arrived (handy Christmas pressies) and relaxation time has been spent over the enforced work holiday period pouring over the xls sheets.  The model has thrown up some interesting predictions for the round one encounters:

Notably some rain on the Bulldogs parade with a predicted Pies narrow win.

A reinvigorated Bombers coming close to the re-jigged Hawks (hopefully with Roughy).

Close games and hopefully crowd pleasers with Crows v GWS; Saints and Demons. (Lately the model has been very supportive (too supportive) of the Crows

A  boost for Blues fans (the model is predicting a healthy first six games for the blues at present).

A thumping win for Geelong - but let's hope there are better signs of life for Freo this year.

Ground	Home	Away	Prediction
MCG	Carlton	Richmond	30
MCG	Collingwood	Western Bulldogs	4
Etihad Stadium	St Kilda	Melbourne	14
SCG	Sydney	Port Adelaide	33
Metricon Stadium	Gold Coast	Brisbane	29
MCG	Essendon	Hawthorn	-2
Etihad Stadium	North Melbourne	West Coast	-14
Adelaide Oval	Adelaide	GW Sydney	11
Domain Stadium	Fremantle	Geelong	-49

What does 2017 hold in store...?

Carlo Monte model predictions for the end of 2017 home and away season (as per previous years methodology) is outlined below:

Team	Shot factor pred eoy	Last 10 game %
Geelong	6.61	149.78
Adelaide	6.29	136.08
GW Sydney	4.93	152.20
Sydney	4.39	157.68
West Coast	3.54	113.92
Hawthorn	3.06	102.36
Western Bulldogs	2.66	113.58
Collingwood	0.14	106.32
North Melbourne	-0.02	80.36
Port Adelaide	-0.02	98.41
St Kilda	-0.81	110.56
Melbourne	-1.01	87.03
Richmond	-2.68	64.60
Carlton	-2.69	114.88
Essendon	-3.44	112.82
Fremantle	-4.44	56.42
Gold Coast	-6.11	96.09
Brisbane	-7.84	63.67