Yes in a round with traditional rivals: Blues v Tigers and Hawks v Dons the game of the round turns out to be the first one for the two Adelaide teams to play at the Adelaide Oval. I base this on the opinions of the 55 margin tipsters (On-line, The Age and The Herald Sun) that I am following this year. The averaged opinion of all of these tipsters is a Port victory by just over 8pts (with a range of 28 points for Port to a 23 point win for Adelaide and a standard deviation of 10.8 pts - the lowest of the ten games so far this year). I myself am tipping Adelaide by 8.
The average opinion (including last nights 12 point win to the tigers) has six from ten so is actually one ahead of the bookies.
The historical showdown results are Adelaide 16 and Port 19. My tipping model is running at 63% having predicted Adelaide 17 times an Port 18.
My model is predicting a 25 to 28 scoring shot game which translates in my model to score ranges:
min 10% low average 90% high Max score shot % chance to win
50 75 87 100 125 25 71.26
56 84 98 112 140 28 26.79 and 1.95% chance of draw
With model tweaks I am prediction 101 to 93 in Adelaide's favour
No home ground advantage has been applied in the model although a small factor for crowd support is allocated to the "home" team. both teams have similar "injury" concerns with 6 unavailable players each as per footytips.com.au player rankings/ availability.
Both teams moving averages for shots for and against are close to each other but slightly favour Adelaide.
Hopefully all of these indicators result in a close and entertaining game.
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