Rerun of 2013 model

The 2013 model has been reviewed and tweaked over the last few weeks with some alterations to the weighting factors for the various offensive and defensive rankings and the choice of moving averages for the shots for and against over time.

The most successful tips come from the bottom of the ladder with over 80% accuracy for games involving GWS, Melbourne, Saints and Bulldogs.

Games involving the Blues caused the most grief.  The Fremantle and Sydney draw was awarded a correct tip for both.

A few other interesting data items become clear with the end of season review - more of those in the coming blogs.  But for now I think I will be sticking with the weighed factors for the remainder of the analysis for this year and will use them to run over the 2104 fixture when it is released shortly in order to predict the 2104 ladder and finalists.

2013 rerun				20 pt moving average		Going into 2014
Tip %	Correct	Games	Team	Shot for	Shot against	shot for - ags	5pt moving average points per shot for
95%	21	22	GW Sydney	18.2	34.2	-16.0	3.91
91%	20	22	Melbourne	21.2	28.8	-7.6	3.97
82%	18	22	St Kilda	20.8	28.0	-7.2	3.60
82%	18	22	Western Bulldogs	29.0	26.2	2.8	4.00
82%	18	22	Gold Coast	27.0	27.8	-0.8	3.57
80%	20	25	Hawthorn	28.2	24.0	4.2	3.76
80%	20	25	Fremantle	28.2	18.8	9.4	3.51
80%	20	25	Sydney	22.2	25.4	-3.2	3.62
77%	17	22	Brisbane	26.2	26.4	-0.2	3.39
72%	18	25	Geelong	28.2	19.0	9.2	4.12
71%	17	24	Port Adelaide	24.4	28.2	-3.8	4.01
68%	15	22	Essendon	21.6	30.6	-9.0	3.58
68%	15	22	West Coast	20.6	27.4	-6.8	3.74
65%	15	23	Richmond	29.4	19.6	9.8	3.57
64%	14	22	North Melbourne	25.8	26.2	-0.4	3.55
61%	14	23	Collingwood	28.4	22.6	5.8	3.46
59%	13	22	Adelaide	29.0	21.6	7.4	3.61
54%	13	24	Carlton	26.0	28.8	-2.8	3.60
			max	29.4	34.2	9.8	4.12
74.0%	153		Average	25.2	25.8	-0.5	3.70
			Std dev	3.57	4.16	7.29	0.21
			min	18.2	18.8	-16.0	3.39