Finals Week 1

All home teams picked this week in what should be a good selection of games to watch (we want Hawks and Swans to both win so as not to meet the week before the Grand final).



The model initially picks Richmond to down the Power by a hefty 21 but weighted averages and the influence of Odds convert the tip to Port (Richmond would need to firm to sub $2.50 to change the model: or model needed to tip Tigers by 24+ to over ride Bookie Odds and Weighted form/ shot average rules).  It does however, suggest that Richmond warrant a wager at the current odds (if you are a betting person - declaration: I am not placing any hard earned on the game),



Also of considerable note is the very poor form of the model with these team combinations over the last ten meetings: I need all predictions to come true in order to move towards some respectability.



The footytips.com.au streak of 18 cannot be topped this year so hopefully it is good enough to allow me to stay in the top 1000 given the tipping is back in the pack and flexi has dropped out of the top 5% for the first time in three years. (well there is always next year - and Go Hawks).

Hawthorn "Shot Graph"

sorry to readers - trying to automate updates of an excel chart to the webpage

Trying a few things to tweak out all of the bugs

Round 20 tips

Charts below show the Herald Sun and The Age Margin tipsters data plus my own model tips for this week.  The Tigers v Dons and Brisbane v Adelaide are flagged in the model as potential upsets opposite to these tips (i.e. Tigers by 27 and Brisbane by 16)



The Fremantle Geelong game has one of the smallest spread of Margin predictions this year (need to confirm with FMI tips when they go online).  Also the Pies v WCE game has a combined avergae margin of 0.3pts infavour of the Pies (a clsoe one to round out the round)