Round 6: No time

Very busy on this "10 day holiday"

Just the tips this week (after a disastrous round last round) (model tips Freo by half a point; flexi tips Bulldogs for 50)

Round Five - a Hawks v Cats cracker

If in doubt pick the home teams this week - except Brisbane.  That is the advice from the model this week; with three anticipated close games, three middling and three worthy of a streak tip (although throwing in GWS and West Coast but not Melbourne who are all on the cusp of the models streak tip criteria)

Flexi tips allocating 50pts on the Hawks over the Cats (feature game); 30 points on the Roos over the Bombers (two teams the model consider very similar) and 20 points for the Pies over Brisbane at the Gabba.

Feature game: Hawks v Cats

The model is anticipating a very close game with the Hawks being victorious by a point (with less scoring shots but a higher accuracy): both tams to score in the 90's.

The model has had a good run with a ten game MAE of 25pts (including a blowout in early 2017 which saw Geelong win by 86pts).  The model has tipped 8 winners out of the last 10 games (all of these games have been at the MCG)

Geelong have been trending higher scores in the last 5 games (only 7 of the 20 scores have been over 100).  The Hawks defense may prove the defining difference - perform poorly and lose; perform well and win.  This is quite evident when comparing the trend graphs for both teams and Geelong shade Hawthorn with accuracy in the short term but not in the long term trends.

Game could go either way but I am sticking with the gutsy 1 point prediction for the Hawks (and putting 50 flexi points on the game also!).  I have a bottle of Chimay Bleue to enjoy while watching from home in Adelaide.

Round Four - A quick upload

Busy with work interstate and helping with a house pack up/ interstate move...so quick run through of the tips and no feature game this week...

Tigers over Port in Adelaide the stand out tip.

West Coast to comfortably win the Derby.

Essendon to topple Lions is one I would not tip based on my gut but model is flagging as a reasonable home win and worth a flexi tip.

Melbourne to topple Swans in Sydney is the other shocker of a model tip - if this one comes off it will be in the minority of tippers: Guttsy call and flexi!

Collingwood for the streak tip over the Bulldogs - I would like to think this one will be closer but this tip sits well with me.

Results
Well a good week for the Flexi tips - all three coming in and boosting the model into the top 400 on footytips.com.au !

A impressively low MAE of just under 15pts and an even spread - pushing the model to 4th on the Monash normal tip competition - this will be hard to maintain but here is hoping.

Frustratingly close tips with Cats and Hawks - making for a great feature game in the upcoming round.

And Adelaide - well the model has them finishing 11th at the end of the year so getting close to officially goooone.  Perhaps a tad early to call it.  But calling Sydney not going to be in finals this year.

Round Three - a lot of close games including the opening feature game

The Carlo Monty Model is predicting a 1 point win for the Cats over the Crows (although if I rounded off the model predicts a draw - a rarity in the football tipping community) in Adelaide - a rare away win (I hope) for matches between these two.  I was tempted to have the Brisbane v Port game as the feature as I think this will be a close and entertaining game wit ha narrow victory to the home team.

Giants v Tigers was possibly another consideration but I think the fragility of the Tigers could be exposed - currently going for a small victory for Giants but the model would not be surprised with a 6 goal runaway in final quarter drubbing.

Freo Saints game was not considered for feature status despite a close finish predicted - quality of play has not been great - could easily be an away win for the Saints.

Collingwood versus Eagles could also be a good game to watch but not enticing enough for flexi tip and not a runaway win prediction suitable for a streak tip.

Melbourne Essendon game will not be pretty to watch - model is still backing the Dees who have not been good.  Note have predicted a streak tip for the Dees (I am nervous about this tip)

Bulldogs predicted to keep their fans happy with a percentage boosting home win.

Feature game

Model has only had a 50 50 success in recent times although a respectable MAE of 23.5.  Home teams have been favoured with wins.  Cats have averaged more scoring shots but Crows have been more accurate - current prediction is 86 each with a fraction over for Cats:

If it is a draw I predicted it.
If Cats win - I told you so: Finals bound; Oh Dear Crows season over
If Crows win - they have bounced back; Cats stumble

Results
How good are the Cats (better than the Crows; but Crows had their chances and enough shots on goal - honorable loss but not far from being gone?)

Melbourne on the other hand - how bad is bad?  One good quarter against a not too highly rated team and then three quarters of stuff all.

Carlton offering signs of hope for the future; Swans looking at somewhere between 7 and 14th.

GWS and Brisbane rolling on - Brisbane impressing lets see how the next four weeks go.

West Coast, Bulldogs and Hawks up and down a bit.

Freo and Saints gave us a close game - Saints accuracy hurting again like 2018 despite early 2019 being reasonable.