For and against predictions are based on a weighted average of shots for and against over the previous 20 rounds and points per shot for and against (accuracy) over the past five rounds).
Geelong, Sydney, Fremantle and Hawthorn were the form teams of the year – Hawthorns flattening off in the last third of the season is evident in the ranking chart with base predicted margins below 50. Freo were the form team going into the finals on this model - needs more investigation.
GWS and Melbourne correctly/ unsurprisingly holding up the ladder.
West Coast and Essendon all over the shop via this method and North’s strong season despite playing finals is also evident.
Pink highlighted margins are in the low historical percentages. Green is in the top 1% and gold is in good form. This graph is generated from the distribution of all predicted margins via this model.
