The community that puts forward final ladder predictions has
grown dramatically over the past decade (or two). The Carlo Monty model has been around long
enough to know that predicting the ladder prior to the start of the season is kin to purchasing a Tattslotto Quick Pick with a fair few people able to “win”
a Division 6 or 5 and thus consider themselves Footy Seers : )
The main point of experience gained over the years of
putting ladder predictions out there is to remove all emotion from the tipping/
predictions. Carlo Monty focuses on the
moving averages of shots for and against and the accuracy of the shots on goal
and applies some ELO thinking. A fairly
clunky excel model based on chart analysis – but it consistently does slightly
better than the bookies (the thinking of the crowd). The long-term predictions for the end of
season ladder are more like Division 6 Tattslotto.
The model simulates the entire season and continually
updates an end of year ladder which feeds into the simulated finals. The predicted Premier jumps around a bit
early in the season and settles down with about the middle of the season. Early predictions for some teams vary greatly with some long winning or losing streaks which need to be viewed with doubt
early I the season.
Based on the Carlo Monty model (moving averages, winning streaks,
simulated season…) the considered opinion for the 2024 ladder (at the end of
the home and away season) is:
Ladder position at
End of H&A
|
Team
|
1
|
Adelaide
|
2
|
GW Sydney
|
3
|
Brisbane
|
4
|
Melbourne
|
5
|
Western Bulldogs
|
6
|
Port Adelaide
|
7
|
Carlton
|
8
|
Geelong
|
9
|
Collingwood
|
10
|
Sydney
|
11
|
Fremantle
|
12
|
Richmond
|
13
|
St Kilda
|
14
|
Hawthorn
|
15
|
Gold Coast
|
16
|
Essendon
|
17
|
North Melbourne
|
18
|
West Coast
|
The predictions are broken down into four groups:
·
Those competing for the top 4 (6 teams)
·
Four teams competing for position 7 or 8; and 9
and 10 (missing finals)
·
Five teams that will shape the fates of the two
groups above them
·
Three teams that are expected to battle it out
for the wooden spoon.
Looking at the top six teams they are identified with a
clear or trending positive shots on goal model (more shots on goal compared to opponents' shots on goal).
Adelaide is positively viewed as their offensive trend has
been increasing consistently for a number of rounds and the defence has been
stable with a slight downward trend. The
expectation is that Adelaide will have focused on improving its defence over
the off season.
GWS has a similar trend but with a shorter period of
offensive increase and a more erratic defence trend. Shot on goal accuracy could improve also
aiding their seasons performance.
Brisbane will be in the mix for a final 4 position. The trends flag keeping an eye on the Brisbane
defence in the first 6 or so games.
Similarly, Melbourne should be considered a contender for
the top 4 although the team has been cruising along with good attack and
defence and a breakdown in either or both is possible. Again, the quality and consistency of the
defence will be the focus for the model.
The Bulldogs are the Carlo Monty pick for outside chance for
Premier. The trends are all in the right
direction. How deep they go in the finals
will depend largely on home ground advantage in finals: a fifth spot home
ground could be viewed better than an interstate final by finishing in fourth
place. I would still prefer to finish 4th
than 5th and I hope the doggies do.
The team on the cusp of being included in the six teams
Carlo Monty considers are battling it out for the top four is Port Adelaide. The
first six to eight games of the season will need to see Port improve the
defence and attack simultaneously. If
they remain stagnant or drop off Port will be battling it out in the cutthroat mid
ladder group(s).
The remainder of the eight will be battled out by Carlton,
Collingwood, Geelong, Sydney and possibly Fremantle. All of these teams have similar shot
trends. Geelong is the team to focus on
as they may remain reasonably consistent and, in the mix, or drop dramatically. The dramatic drop is on the cards as the shots
for is trending down and the shots against is strongly trending up. Preseason viewing should influence the early season
tips.
Collingwood are notably over rated by the bookies – and I
think should be very happy that they got to put the 2023 Cup in the cabinet.
Richmond, St Kilda, Hawthorn and Gold Coast trends are not
very impressive but games between themselves and the teams fighting it out for
the lower final eight will have a very big impact.
The final three teams are characterised by a big gap between
shots for and against. Hopefully both
North and West Coast become more competitive and shake up the teams vying for
spots 6 to 15. Wooden spoon watch for
Essendon I predict will be discussed about mid season.